Markets

Coffee hits 1-yr low, cocoa also falters

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Sugar futures were mixed as dealings remained choppy.

Supply concerns prevented the arabica market from falling further.

March arabica coffee on ICE dropped 0.3 cent to $2.1770 per lb by 12:18 p.m. EST (1718 GMT), the lowest for the second position since Dec. 16, 2010. The contract dipped to $2.1725 on Wednesday, a one-year low for the second month.

"Fundamentally, there are still supply concerns in the coming months, particularly questions over crops from Latin America," said Andrea Thompson, an analyst with CoffeeNetwork.

"You've just seen huge commodity pressure on general dampened sentiment and equities, all because of the European situation and concerns about the global economy."

Dealers said Wednesday's setback had been triggered mainly by selling across the commodity complex linked to the deepening debt crisis in the euro zone and the strengthening dollar.

The market remained underpinned by a recent scaling-back of some forecasts for Brazil's 2012/13 crop following a prolonged spell of dry weather.

Consensus amongst international coffee trade houses for Brazil's coming crop is around 56 million to 57 million 60-kg bags, down from previous expectations for the crop to exceed 60 million, while forecasts in top washed arabica grower Colombia have also recently dropped.

March robusta coffee on Liffe fell $10 to $1,902 a tonne, having touched $1,887 earlier in the session, the lowest level for the second month since late November.

Vietnamese exporters may delay some robusta shipments as farmers hold on to their beans with domestic prices remaining higher than export prices, traders said.

NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

ICE raw sugar futures edged up but remained within striking distance of the prior session's 6-1/2-month low, climbing in modest business on buying by small investors due to a weaker dollar, analysts said.

"We're going to drift right into the weekend," said Country Hedging Inc senior analyst Sterling Smith. "I think we're starting to see some holiday trade."

Traders said raw sugar futures are pinned in a rough band running from 23 to 25 cents and will not likely break out of that range until after the New Year when the bigger investors come back from the holidays.

Benchmark March sugar futures traded up 0.06 cent to 22.86 cents a lb. The contract fell to 22.30 cents on Wednesday, the lowest level for the front month since June.

"We feel in the medium term the outlook looks negative for the flat price, but in the coming session there is a good chance of seeing a retest of the 23.50 resistance, but it's probably a scale sell from there," brokers Sucden Financial said in a daily market update.

March white sugar futures on Liffe reversed down 60 cents to $597.10 per tonne in modest volume around 3,500 lots.

Cocoa futures turned lower in consolidation, after a sharp outside reversal higher on Monday yanked the markets out of technically oversold levels.

"Cocoa had a very significant correction price-wise. When the momentum could not be kept and the market situation got worse in Europe, the market came off again," one veteran cocoa dealer in New York said.

"This risk aversion mode the market has locked itself will continue."

March cocoa on ICE settled down $29, or 1.3 percent, at $2,151 a tonne. March set a contract low of $1,983 on Monday but rebounded to a peak of $2,274 on Wednesday. May cocoa on Liffe reversed to end down 28 pounds, or 1.9 percent, at 1,412 pounds a tonne in light volume around 1,600 lots.

"The industry is more keen to buy forward cover as they saw this very sharp rally over the last two days, so prices may be stuck here for a little bit -- sideways to lower over the next couple of weeks," a London-based cocoa dealer said.

"The price swings could still be a bit volatile as people are away at Christmas; the volume will start to slow down."

Monday's surge up from three-year lows was sparked partly by a forecast from leading cocoa trader Olam International Ltd of a tightening global market in 2012, with supplies moving into deficit after this year's record surplus drove prices too low.

Copyright Reuters, 2011