The military threat from India has always been a cornerstone of Pakistan's defence planning and remains so today. Recently some journalists and politicians have expressed views to the contrary. One needs to examine if there are any cogent reasons to justify these views. Has the deployment of Indian forces changed on the ground and does the recent changes in Indian military doctrine favour these assertions?
The present physical deployment of Indian forces on our borders is undernoted:
a) The 15th Corps comprising two infantry divisions, an infantry brigade and 16 Corps consisting of 3 infantry divisions, an armour brigade and an artillery brigade are deployed against us in Indian occupied Kashmir.
b) 11th Corps having three infantry divisions, an armour brigade and a mechanised brigade; and 10 Corps consisting of one infantry (regular) division and three Rapid Deployment infantry divisions are facing us in Punjab.
c) In Haryana there are 2nd (Strike) Corps with one armoured division, two infantry divisions (one Rapid and one regular), another armoured brigade and one brigade of engineers.
d) Rajasthan has 12th (Desert) Corps, which has two infantry divisions, an armoured brigade and one mechanised infantry brigade. In addition to this deployment on our borders, the Indians have the following forces suitably placed to reinforce the forces deployed on our borders.
1) 21st Strike Corps supported by an armoured division, additional Rapid infantry division with an armoured brigade, an engineers brigade.
2) 1st Strike Corps with an infantry division, a mountain division and an armoured division.
This shows that 70 percent of the Indian forces are physically deployed against Pakistan. In fact, India has only their 33rd Corps, 3rd Corps and the 4th Corps deployed against China and Bangladesh.
The Cold Start Doctrine of the Indian army was conceived in 2004; it is a Pakistan specific offensive doctrine involving eight Integrated Battle Groups. It is not just an academic concept but has the full backing and political approval of the Congress government and the opposition. The Indian army, air force and the navy have carried out 11 exercises involving 50,000 troops in the past seven years. Only recently the Indian military carried out a 6-day-long joint exercise "Vijay Bhava" in Bikaner-Suratgarh axis in the Rajasthan desert only 70 kms from the Pakistan border. This exercise involved the blitzkrieg type armoured penetration in Pakistan followed by mechanised infantry and rapid divisions and testing the Indian army's night-time operation capabilities.
India has placed eight Independent Brigade Groups close to Pakistan's border to save mobilisation time and have shifted the Strike Formation Head Quarters from Central India to Punjab along with the armoured divisions and brigades to forward positions.
Why has India been carrying out exercises close to our border? Why is 70 percent of the Indian army poised against us? Why have the Headquarters of the Strike Formation shifted from Central India to Punjab? Should we ignore all these facts?
Pakistani politicians, journalists and our American 'friends' need to look hard at the cold facts regarding the disposition of the Indian army on the ground and the official Indian military's statements on the Indian Cold Start Doctrine before issuing statements stating that there is no threat from India.
The EU recently proposed to abolish duty on the import of 75 items, it is India who opposed it and the matter is now deadlocked. This is yet another item in the long list of anti-Pakistan acts of India. The fact is that Indians never really accepted the establishment of Pakistan. They, even after 64 years, do not accept the reality of Pakistan. The Indians of even the present generation which were born 40 years after independence consider the establishment of Pakistan a great tragedy. Consequently, bitterness and confrontation have persisted in the minds of all the successive Indian governments and almost all the leaders of India. The Indian media also does not seem to get over the so-called 'tragedy of partition'. In fact, it is this mindset which is the real tragedy and the real impediment in the normalisation and improvement of relations between India and Pakistan.