United States Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen's recent TV interview seems to have confirmed suspicions that the Supreme Council of the armed forces in Egypt, which is said to have been tasked by the US to midwife a democratic process in post-Mubarak Egypt, will not let the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) come into power through parliamentary and presidential elections in the most populous Arab country later this year.
One would find it both interesting and ironic that the US had had strong military relations with Pakistan before it carried out a unilateral military raid on Abbottabad on May 2, 2011. Arguably, the US-Pakistan relations or the relations between the armed forces of these two countries are now at the lowest ebb, although the White House insists that "complicated" US-Pakistan ties remain "strong".
Mullen derives his confidence from the investment that the US has made in the Egyptian military since the signing of the Jimmy Carter-brokered Camp David Accord between Egypt and Israel in 1978 (a year later, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan gave birth to an opportunity for both the US and Pakistan to strengthen and expand their military co-operation on an unprecedented scale). The greater US influence on the Egyptian armed forces, which are the largest on the African continent, subsequently led to avoid a situation similar to what the world has seen particularly in the cases of Libya and Syria where rulers have chosen to hold on to power through use of force.
Mullen's seemingly strong faith in the Egyptian military's ability to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from coming to power has been reinforced by the Muslim Brotherhood's own decision: the Hasan al-Banna-founded party would neither field a candidate for president nor seek a parliamentary majority.
"Its [the MB's] leaders understand well the risks of over-reaching at this transitional stage, with several citing during our conversations the lessons of Algeria (where Islamist electoral success triggered military coup and a horrific civil war) and Gaza (where the victory by Hamas triggered international sanctions and a deep Palestinian political divide). But its leaders seem increasingly annoyed with their counterparts. Why should the MB be punished, they ask, for spending the last few months organizing for a political campaign while its rivals did little but talk? They are also furious over what they see as an unfair and distorting media campaign against them across much of the press and TV," says an article/post by Marc Lynch on the MB website on Saturday.
The following are the excerpts from the interview that Mullen gave to Charlie Rose at the latter's TV show about a week ago:
Do you believe that the Egyptian military is moving satisfactorily to creating a democratic circumstance on the ground?
Mullen: "[T]hey are working round the clock to do the best they can for their country. I actually believe that. I think the challenge is enormous. They're trying to get parties stood up; they're trying to get candidates who will have to have platforms, who will have to go out and seek votes and elect the parliament by the end of September with a specific election date not determined yet. They're going to re-write the constitution right after that. They're going to elect the President by the end of this year."
And you worry about what might come after the election as happened in different places.
Mullen: "Well, we all wanted to come out well."
Are you worried because of the nature of an election that's coming in which the most organised organisation is the Muslim Brotherhood?
Mullen: "That's the concern we all have. And I spoke to the military leadership about that. They gave me reassurances not to be overly concerned about that. That they have no intent, from my perspective, letting the Muslim Brotherhood come in and run their country."
Meaning if the Muslim Brotherhood tries to run the country they will do something about it...
Mullen: "Well, I mean.... But the higher level message was that they are going to take care of their country. They did the right thing in the revolution [the Arab Spring]. They made a conscientious decision not to turn on their people; they will not turn on their people in the future."
Speaking of that, it is said that one of the reasons they didn't turn on people is that up and down from lieutenant colonels to you there was a communication between the US military and the Egyptian military and that that made a difference so they were not even tempted to get involved in using force against people in Tahrir Square.
Mullen: "Well, that had been. In fact, when this started General Annan was in the US beginning a visit to me. I was returning to Washington, and in fact we never really got together. But I know he had meetings while he was in Washington with some of our military and there were discussions about this issue because....That said, I place much more credibility in the 30-year relationship than I would in specific calls that were made...."
But the relationship...because those Egyptians had come and been trained here and so therefore you knew them and they knew you and there was a relationship developed over years- when they were junior officers until they were senior officers.
Mullen: "I think, without any question. And yet, it's those officers, it's the Egyptian forces that deserve credit here. It does speak to, I think, the importance of military-to-military relationships and they all existed at different stages and different levels and we worked them all over the world.
But they didn't have much impact in Bahrain. Did they?
Mullen: "Well, actually, I think more than you realize, Bahrain is a worry in terms of actions that were taken there. I made a trip out to the Gulf states in January and it was very clear in every country I was in that Bahrain was a redline and they were extremely concerned about Iran, although my view is that this wasn't about Iran, this is about internal pressures and rights for individual people in each country. And what I worry about now is steps are being taken which will open the door to Iran because while Iran didn't start it they now see opportunity and we all just need to be mindful."