The euro edged up against the dollar on Monday, bouncing back from an early drop as traders expected a bout of short-covering to give the single currency only a temporary reprieve. The euro sliced through stop-loss orders in very early Asian trade that drove it as low as $1.4285, with a break of chart support painting a bleak technical picture.
European policymakers appeared no closer to finalising an agreement over whether private investors would take part in a restructuring of Greek debt, with Germany sticking to its guns even as the European Central Bank warns of potential market turmoil. Teppei Ino, a currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo, said the euro may fall back towards the May low at $1.3968 as the eurozone debt crisis and reduced prospects for higher rates take a toll.
The euro was up slightly at $1.4341 after dropping as far as $1.4285 on EBS in very early Asian trade and down from a one-month peak of $1.46966 struck last week. Trading was thin, with Australian markets closed for a holiday. The single currency was likely to struggle to recover much beyond $1.44, traders said. Among the resistance levels are the 55-day moving average at $1.4398 and a concentration of former chart support around $1.4430/50, which includes previous intraday peaks in May and a 38.2 percent retracement of the May-to-June rise.
The euro's woes have been compounded by a slide in global stocks that has prompted some market players to unwind carry trades funded with the US dollar. The dollar was up 0.2 percent at 80.52 yen, having clawed back up from a one-month low of 79.693 struck last week on buying by Japanese importers. The New Zealand dollar tumbled after a series of powerful earthquakes shook Christchurch, four months after the city was badly damaged by a 6.3 magnitude quake. The tremors destroyed a building and sent boulders tumbling down hillsides.
The kiwi dropped 1 percent and hit a low of $0.8117. The Aussie was up slightly at $1.0539 but gained about 1 percent to NZ$1.2951, helping to put a floor in that pair hammered by a sharp liquidation of longs after Australia's central bank showed a reluctance to hike rates further. The Aussie had been boosted earlier in the day by short-covering by players including macro hedge funds, traders said.