The following instalment of the series "Arab unrest: perspectives" has been dedicated to the fond memory of Business Recorder's senior staff member Rais Ahmad Khan who passed away at the age of 83 in Karachi in the wee hours of last Tuesday. Khan, who had devoted a large part of his life to the studies of Central Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, was an inspiration, a sage and a friend to many of his colleagues:
It is widely believed that the US did not have an exit strategy for Iraq, it seems to have no entry strategy for Libya either. An unattractive mixture of interests and principles is said to have been seen in the case of Libya, which was a low hanging fruit unlike Saudi Arabia in particular for the West. Why is Saudi Arabia so different in relation to the Arab Revolution? Although, some previous instalments of this series have already addressed a number of aspects related to this question, a recent programme on Al Jazeera has provided some new perspectives on this theme. The following are excerpts from the discussion.
"Saudi Arabia would like to see the status quo is maintained and present a façade that everything is fine in the Middle East. They have only succeeded in delaying the revolution, but not killing it." This was the text of an email by Kiragn Titus in Nairobi, Kenya, that the host, Riz Khan, received during the live telecast of programme "Saudi Arabia's counter-revolution".
According to him, as the Arab spring continues to blossom, a counter-revolution is taking hold of the region with Saudi Arabia at the helm. New political rifts have begun to emerge in the region, as the monarchy pushes its own agenda. He asks: Will new-found freedoms across the Middle East affect Saudi Arabia's hold on the region?
He further says that during Egypt's uprising Saudi Arabia pushed for Mubarak to remain in power. It has threatened to withdraw investment if the deposed president is put on trial. Riyadh is also trying to broker a deal for Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down in exchange of immunity. The Saudi royal family has quelled all protests calling for reforms. Last month, it deployed in Bahrain its troops under the umbrella of GCC. Some consider Bahrain a focal point of a struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran as both countries are vying for dominance in the Gulf.
What is Saudi Arabia thinking? Professor Thomas Mattair of Middle East Policy Council believes that Saudi Arabia did not want to see Mubarak to fall. According to him, Saudi Arabia obviously has to be concerned about what happens in Yemen because of al Qaeda. If this outfit becomes stronger there it could pose a challenge to the kingdom. Saudi Arabia also has some legitimate concerns about Bahrain because Iran has made claims about this island in the past. Tehran could exploit disturbances. And if it were to succeed in gaining a greater foothold there such as it has gained in Iraq that could pose a serious security challenge to Saudi Arabia.
How likely it is for something to happen in Saudi Arabia in the same way it happened in Egypt and Tunisia? According to him, he wouldn't say it is very likely because Saudi Arabia is a much richer country; it has poured money into development of its economy; it has diversified its economy; and it has educated its citizenry. But that does not mean that it does not have any problems. Obviously, it has been producing so many students and college graduates that it has trouble finding employment for all of them. You don't have the same economic dissatisfaction in Saudi Arabia to the extent that you see in some other countries. And in a sense, the royal family is a unifying force there, so it is respected. The king is seen as a reformer, so he's admired. There is a desire for more change-drastic change-by some people. "But I don't think that you are going to see the regime is challenged the way it has been in other countries".
"How long can they ignore...?" Salman Shaikh, the Director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy believes that Saudi Arabia is actually looking for stability-both internally and externally-at the time of great change. And this is not something they are going to be able to hold back that change. "So in terms of Saudi Arabia and its development we are looking at change coming to Saudi Arabia over a period of time."
Royals seek to offset any potential public discontent and malcontent Mattair argues that economic disparities and dissatisfaction has been one major theme in addition to call for greater political representation during the Arab Revolution. According to him, the disbursing of sums of money by the royal family will go some way to easing discontent and giving the regime time to deal with the inevitable demands for reforms and for them to figure out how much reform they can introduce and how quickly. "Because remember, in Saudi Arabia you don't only have liberals seeking more political participation, but you have conservatives thinking that the king has already introduced too much political reforms".
What political price Saudi Arabia might pay for sending its troops to Bahrain? According to Dr Shaikh, the Saudi intervention is raising the specter of greater sectarian tensions in the region as well as the possibility of regional spillover. What is going on in Bahrain now is opening up a Pandora's Box of existing tensions particularly with Iran. We are going from a situation of what was effectively a "Cold War" to a series of hot rhetoric "and this I fear would lead us into a more escalating set of conflicts in the region".
Bahrain rulers seeking to dissolve Al-Wifaq He argues that the main opposition group in Bahrain, Al-Wifaq, may have won more seats as many would say that the gerrymandering of electoral districts and votes actually reduces its seats in the Bahrain parliament. "We have to try and maintain a space for dialogue in Bahrain," says Shaikh, adding that right now the actions of the royal family are closing that space. "We are having increasing arrests and detentions as well as this extra-ordinary move regarding Al-Wifaq party... .The longer these kinds of actions go on we are not going to have space for dialogue. I think that is inevitable". Has the US taken a back-seat?
According to Muttair, "obviously" the US would like to see political reforms in Bahrain and thinks that the ruling family has missed an opportunity to offer reforms that would dampen down that dissent. But the US thinks that it has to balance its ideological national interests and its strategic national interests. And it can see that vocal support for reforms in Bahrain made the Saudis nervous because of the security challenge that could emerge from the island state. "So understanding what an important ally Saudis are has led the United States to not oppose vigorously the Saudi intervention in Bahrain, but to hope that the Saudi intervention would give the Bahrain rulers' family time to make amends and make reforms. I'm sure the Obama administration is talking to Bahraini royal family about that".
Shaikh, however, argues that the US policy regarding this crisis has been initially reactive, rather than proactive. "What I call it hesitant diplomacy". Finally, President Obama and Secretary Clinton have found their voices. "We actually heard Secretary Clinton talking about the convergence of values and interests. This is of course what is worrying the Saudis... ." How much is Shia-Sunni tension a real factor in shaping up what is going on in the Middle East
In Bahrain, Mattair says, the Shias have been disadvantaged. "That's an issue that the ruling family should address." In Saudi Arabia, one could make the same argument, although the royal family did try to make the situation better over the last decade. "There are philosophical differences about the way they practice their religion. There are suspicions. The Shias suspect the Sunnis and the Sunnis suspect the Shias. And certainly for the Sunnis, there is a concern that the Shias represent a potential fifth column or a potential avenue for Iran to intervene in their domestic affairs. And clearly, Iran had tried to do so in the past. So any Iranian member of the Revolutionary Guard looking at the situation today will have to see an opportunity for themselves."
Egypt is willing to engage more with Iran Shaikh believes that certainly for Saudi Arabia this is yet again another indication of shifting balances and dynamics in the region. What is particularly interesting and worrisome for the Saudis is the timing of the move by the Egyptians. The Egyptians are trying to apply more even-handed approach-going for some sort of normalisation with the Iranians. "But this comes at the back of rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and GCC states and Iran... ."
The following two comments on this programme also make an interesting reading of the situation in relation to Saudi Arabia: Someone with an ID "za101" writes, among other things, that ever since the Saudi government is giving its citizens salary bonuses, the prices of goods in the kingdom have begun to increase. "Saudi Arabia never had inflationary problems before. And Saudi Arabia about too [to] see largest [the highest] inflation ever...Now Saudis are going to be poorer at the end of 2011, than any time in the past 10 years... ."
In response, a post by "always laff" says: "@Za101 you are totally removed from reality, king abdullah [King Abdullah] is really popular with masses. the [The] royal family is acting like glue sticking together different tribes"[.] people [People] are concerned about is employment opportunities..."
(To be continued)