In pursuance of meeting his constitutional obligations President Asif Ali Zardari selected March 22 as the day he addressed the joint session of parliament. The flurry of political activity that this generated would have been inexplicable in any democratic democracy: the PPP-led by the Prime Minister and a small coterie of Zardari loyalists began an intense campaign to convince members of the Opposition as well as coalition partners not to engage in disruptive activity during the President's speech.
That the PPP team succeeded was evident as the PML (N), PML (Q) and the JUI (F) boycotted the speech rather than disrupt it, unlike in the past where presidential speeches had been disrupted by the country's two major parties.
Thus the walkout by the three parties is not generally regarded as genuine protest but as tacit support. The only genuine protest launched by the Opposition so far acknowledged by the independent media was the long march that led to the restoration of the judiciary. Zardari's capitulation on the restoration was premised on his acceptance of the fact that the government did not have the means, in spite of the massive roadblocks placed between Lahore and Islamabad by Rehman Malik at the time, to take on the marchers without support from the armed forces, support which was, reportedly, requested but denied. The Zardari government learned a valuable lesson from that instance, which accounts for its subsequent policy with respect to the other ultimatums given periodically by the opposition, its coalition partners, the judiciary, or the omnipresent establishment: challenge those who, in the President's perception, are focused on the fall of his government in the Centre in fiery speeches, failing which he capitulates.
One has only to look at various speeches made by the President during the past three years to accept the veracity of this contention. He began by accusing the PML (Q) of being complicit in the death of his spouse and leader Benazir Bhutto, a party that he recently wooed again when the MQM threatened to join the opposition ranks in the centre. The President has repeatedly warned, either in his own speeches or that of his loyalists particularly the Sindh Home Minister, that he would not hesitate to play the 'Sindh card' if the establishment or the judiciary take decisions that compromise his government (though his playing the 'Sindh card' for a matter that ought to have been a non-issue ie the fate of Deedar Hussain Shah as the National Accountability Bureau Chairman, who could easily be replaced by yet another jiyala, may have undermined his ability to use it to meet a more pressing need in the future). All other protests, including the time-bound 10-point agenda of PML (N) as well as MQM's 19 points, have, with the advantage of hindsight, been posturing or as rightly declared by the President in his speech 'political point scoring.'
The question why the Opposition would allow such a policy to prevail for three years with no end in sight is premised on two concerns: first the PML (N) remains reluctant to forgive and forget the Musharraf-era slights to its leadership by politicians which militates against the possibility of a passage of a vote of no-confidence; and second the fear that the possible demise of the Zardari government maybe engineered by the establishment, which would have obvious consequences on its own bid for power in the centre.
Inexplicable was the President's claim in his speech to the joint sitting of parliament that "we believe in reconciliation not point scoring" considering that this exhortation post-dates the joint action by PPP and PML (Q) MPAs that paralysed the workings of the Punjab Assembly by less than a week. "Rarely in history has a leader abdicated power by his own free will. My head bows in gratitude before Allah for giving me the strength, to give up powers that had been usurped by the dictators," the President said sanctimoniously though, in all probability, he convinced no one.
The President's address does not disappoint those who maintain that he simply cannot help himself but use the platform of a joint sitting of parliament to take on the institution that has given him the greatest grief. The consensus is that in 2011 his major angst is with the judiciary and its decisions that seek to challenge executive as well as parliamentary decisions. Thus the focus of the President was the judiciary when he said "we will uphold the supremacy of the Constitution and the parliament. We will not permit anyone to usurp the powers that rightly belong to the Parliament. We believe that all state organs should work within their parameters as laid down in the constitution." He, of course, did mention the passage of the three presidential ordinances on 15 March 2011 that impose taxes on the already taxed - the salaried, and through an SRO imposes 17 percent sales tax on five sectors namely textiles, leather, surgical goods, sports, and carpets that were previously zero-rated. This will reactivate the system of refunds which has brought trade and industry, two distinct groups that have not seen eye to eye on many government tax proposals, on a common platform: of opposition as the system of refunds in the past has neither been prompt nor effective.
The bulk of the President's speech focused on the economic achievements and the way forward. He cited agreement on the 7th National Finance Commission Award yet another year - the award was signed in April last year. Meanwhile he claimed that the government has taken some tough decisions and claimed "we are not afraid to lead and we know the way." However, the way sadly for this country's growing number of poor did not imply taxes on the rich and influential people.
In terms of the President's claim on reducing wasteful government expenditures two merit notice. The President proclaimed the year 2011 as the year of education, 'not just for the children of the rich but for all the sons and daughters of Pakistan'. This, of course, raises questions of his personal commitment as his own children have never studied in this country. And, second, his claim that the energy supply has risen by 1800 MW. The fruits of this enhanced generation are hardly witnessed by the common man suffering from severe load-shedding, expected to rise during the summer months.
The continuing inter-circular debt that the government has proved unable to control for over three years due to failure to check inefficiency and corruption in the energy sector as well as failure to ensure payment of the bill by state departments. Add the controversial rental power projects into the mix which has kept the courts engaged and one is at a loss to understand how the President is legitimately seeking a consensus on resolving the energy shortage.
Thus the President's address to the joint sitting of parliament reflected a state of disunion where his call for a consensus on five major economic issues must be regarded skeptically. Decisions on the energy shortage and the circular debt have been taken in spite of a political consensus based on third party audit to the contrary; taxation reforms do require a consensus. However, in his speech he stated that "the tax net is being expanded through introduction of the Reformed General Sales Tax" - a tax that is opposed by several political parties rhetorically which he inappropriately presented as a fait accompli. However, the President can easily argue that parliament could pass a resolution nullifying his ordinances and given that no party has taken this step it reflects a consensus of sorts. And finally restructuring public sector entities has been resisted by the government through appointments of heads of SOEs with neither the relevant qualifications nor relevant experience.
And last but not least the President was silent in his segment on foreign policy with respect to the world's sole superpower the United States. That no doubt allowed him not to deal with the release of Raymond Davis followed by drone strikes that killed at least 44 tribals who had no association with the Taliban. Sad indeed!