It is hard to take issue with the perception that the people are infuriated over the deterioration in their economic situation, the political instability, the law and order situation in the country and more so the inability of the government to mitigate their ordeal.
It is in the backdrop of this scenario that the demands for change in the government and mid-term polls or fresh polls have been resonating for quite some time, and have become a hotly debated issue presently, thanks also to the agenda-setting role of the media. All kinds of arguments are on offer. The debate, however, lacks an aura of objectivity and sincerity of purpose and is symptomatic of the typical mindset of a highly polarised political culture that unfortunately has been the bane of our political and economic progress.
The questions that need to be asked are, is the present government solely responsible for what the country is going through at present and are the mid-term polls the panacea for a quick-fix solution to the sufferings of the people? Pakistan today has an internal debt of Rs 4959 billion, whereas its external debt liability is in the vicinity of US$ 54.8 billion. The budgetary deficit ranges from 6.3-7% of GDP. That indeed is a very precarious economic scenario and probably the root cause of the economic meltdown. Only fools can give credence to the view that the present government was responsible for this fiasco. The problem is a cumulative effect of the reckless and unimaginative policies, divorced from the economic realities, pursued by successive regimes and further aggravated by the war against terrorism and the recent floods; factors which were beyond the control of the government. Any other party in power would have been in the same situation.
A similar economic aberration in the Western countries caused a massive economic recession which hit many vulnerable European nations like Greece who had to be rescued from total collapse through the US$ 60 billion rescue package by the Euro zone countries and IMF. Spain and Portugal also went through the debilitating scare. Ireland also had to be bailed out through injection of a huge rescue package. The US economy has also been badly battered by this phenomenon and a serious debate is raging on the policy options designed to reduce the budgetary deficit. The recipe adopted by them to salvage their economies invariably aims at reducing expenditure and increasing taxes to narrow the budgetary deficit. The UK coalition government had to opt for 40 billion pound budget cuts and tax increases to fix the problem.
Pakistan unfortunately is not in a position to muster the kind of financial support that the European community extended to its vulnerable members to tide over the financial crunch and stabilise their economies. It does need IMF and US support (notwithstanding the clamour by the proponents of the self-esteem rhetoric) to off-set some of the negative fallout from the massive budgetary deficit that it is faced with. However, it is an inescapable reality that it will also have to adopt the same formula that has been put in place by the European countries, i.e. drastic cuts in the government spending and expanding the tax base that may further hit the common man. There are also other portents that suggest that the people will have to face further hardships due to the spiralling international prices of oil and food which have already hurt a number of economies of the world including the US, which is contemplating to market its oil reserves to lessen the burden on the masses, with a view to avoiding political repercussions. Pakistan again is not so lucky. It has to buy its oil from the international market on the prevailing prices and it simply cannot afford not to transfer the burden onto the consumers through subsidies, because subsidies are the luxuries of better economic times.
Those who are trying to pressurise the government against expanding the tax base and continuing giving subsidies on oil to mitigate the sufferings of the people are actually playing to the gallery with a view to gaining political mileage in complete disregard to the economic realities, not realising that this skewed approach could further aggravate the problems of the people in the long run and scuttle the chances of Pakistan ever getting out of the economic morass. These are the harsh and escapable realities. My appeal to the politicians is, speak the truth to the people please. Tell them that there are difficult times ahead and they will have to give further sacrifices to stem the rot and help the government in taking the country out of the present quagmire. My advice to the people is that they do not believe the politicians.
Fresh and mid-term polls are not the plausible solution to our woes. It may result in a change of faces, but it certainly cannot automatically fix the volatile economic situation or tackle other challenges. The country needs an impregnable unity among the political entities and a collaborative effort in removing the systemic maladies and finding an agreed long-term strategy to resolve the economic issues and the much-talked about phenomenon of ubiquitous corruption. We have already witnessed the dividends of the politics of reconciliation and consensus in the form of the 18th Amendment and the 7th NFC Award. The job is not done yet. We still have a long way to go in reforming the political system and building an economic edifice that can unleash a process of sustainable growth in the country. The good work that has been done must not be spoiled by a relapse into the politics of confrontation or the impulsive propensity to destabilise the sitting government. The opposition and the government need to respect each other's mandate and strengthen democracy by promoting a culture of tolerance. Fighting terrorism and curbing the fissiparous tendencies in different regions of the country also require the undivided focus of all the political forces.