Print Print edition: 2011-03-11

Sterling rates ease

Published Updated

Sterling money market rates eased on Thursday after the Bank of England held interest rates, and analysts said the move was an opportunity to price in a more aggressive future rates path than currently expected. Markets anticipate UK interest rates will rise from a record low 0.5 percent by summer, and had seen an outside chance of a hike on Thursday.
With inflation having already surged to 4 percent, twice the central bank's target, a rise in June is almost fully priced in, with many seeing a move as soon as May. Short sterling contracts ticked higher after the BoE decision, a move analysts suggested using to set new positions that reflect policymakers' growing nervousness about inflation.
Benchmark three-month sterling Libor rates were unchanged at 0.80813 ahead of the BoE meeting. Equivalent euro rates were broadly steady at 1.12813 percent The European Central Bank gave a strong hint last week that it would raise rates next month, causing a marked flattening of the eurozone rates curve.
The 2/10 UK yield curve is currently at 233 bps, from around 214 bps two weeks ago. Markets unwound some UK rate hike expectations when the BoE held rates last month: the December 2012 short-sterling contract has risen 35 ticks since then for example, pushing implied yields lower. Markets are pricing in two UK rate hikes by year-end which would take interest rates to 1.0 percent. In the eurozone, the 2/10 yield curve has flattened around 10 basis points in the last week, and around 45 basis points since mid-February, as markets have moved to price in three interest rate hikes this year.