President Hosni Mubarak, the despot that ruled Egypt for nearly three decades has been ousted through a peaceful uprising of the Egyptian people that has no precedent either in that country. Egypt is the second domino to fall after Tunisia. Ironically the transition to a democratic order reflecting the will of the Egyptian people is to be shepherded by the army that has ruled the country since 1952.
It remains to be seen how well the Egyptian army acquits itself of the onerous responsibility that it has now. The high command of the army consists of people who were staunch members of the old order but have showed signs of bowing to the majesty of the people. If the change in Tunisia created ripples, the change in Egypt has the portents to stir up a tsunami in the region. The winds of change blowing in the Arab world have reached Saudi Arabia, though it is a mere whiff as compared to the full force storm in Egypt and the turbulence in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen and Syria. In an extraordinary move, nine political activists have announced - using a modern tool of political activism now popular in the region, an internet website - the launch of the country's first political party, "Islamic Umma Party".
The party manifesto aims to work for "freedom, political pluralism, peaceful transfer of power and the right of the Umma (Islamic nation) to choose its governments." Its founders have sent a letter to King Abdullah to seek formal recognition. The letter says that "the Islamic world has seen great political developments and the strengthening of freedoms and human rights, which Islam already approves" and that "it is now time for the kingdom to keep pace with these developments and contribute to them."
Interestingly, the founders make copious references to Umma, stressing "unity of the Umma and the need to unify and strengthen the integration between its peoples and the states, especially in the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula, and in the Arab and Islamic world generally". That would seem like a call for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate - something Osama bin Laden has been fighting for. Besides, it would be a contradiction of the modern concept of nation-states as well as democratic notions of freedom and pluralism mentioned in the party's policy statement. The talk of the Umma's unity though could be an attempt at compliance with the religious character of the kingdom's routine pronouncements. Whatever the reason, the request for recognition of a political party in an absolutely monarchy in itself is an act of revolt. It is likely to end up in a wastepaper basket.
Yet it needs to be recognised that all people aspire to democratic ideals. They want equal opportunities and the rule of law. If the upheaval in Tunisia could inspire people from Jordan to Yemen to take to the streets to demand a better deal, triggering an unprecedented uprising in Egypt, it is reasonable to assume that the Saudis are not impervious either to those momentous events. In fact, as various commentators have been pointing out, the Jasmine Revolution was a quiver as compared to the Egyptian revolt; it amounts to a major earthquake whose tremors are affecting the entire region. The form of its culmination is still unclear, what is clear is that the Middle East is undergoing a seminal change. The era of authoritarian regimes and monarchies is coming to a close. The way forward is radical political reform. In the case of the Saudi Kingdom as also the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, they can survive only if they undertake timely reform, and are willing to accept constitutional monarchy.