Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Monday in light trade, led by banks, as investors cut risk because of fears that the unrest in Egypt would spread to the rest of the Middle East. The violence in North Africa and the Middle East has already pushed up oil prices and will add to concern about food price inflation.
"More investors are on the sidelines due to fears over the unrest spreading to other countries in the Middle East and holidays in the region this week," a Singapore-based analyst said. "Though this is an excuse for profit taking, the main concern is oil prices, where they will head if the crisis in the Middle East spreads."
The MSCI index of Asia and Pacific shares excluding Japan was down 1 percent at 0943 GMT. The Philippines fell 2.2 percent to hit its lowest close in nearly five months, taking its loss on the month to 7.6 percent. Indonesia, the worst performer in the region this year, dropped 2.3 percent on the day and 8 percent in January.
Thailand closed 1.8 percent weaker on the day and down 6.7 percent on the month. These markets were among last year's biggest gainers in Asia, with Jakarta receiving foreign inflows of $2.2 billion in 2010, Bangkok $1.9 billion and Manila $816 million, Reuters data shows. However, foreign money has flowed out of Jakarta and Bangkok this year. Some $22.1 million left Indonesia on Monday, and a total of $442.3 million on the month, while Thailand saw net selling of $28.4 million on Monday and $933 million on the month.
The Philippines lost $2.5 million on Monday, but took in a net $869 million in foreign money in January. Trading volumes were light in Jakarta and Bangkok, with Thailand seeing only 0.67 times its 30-day average and Indonesia 0.85. Singapore and Kuala Lumpur saw higher turnover. Banks led the fall across regional bourses and analysts attributed the move to foreign selling. Singapore fell 1.6 percent and Malaysia edged down 0.1 percent. Vietnam was closed for a holiday.
In Jakarta, the country's second-largest lender, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, fell 4.9 percent, while the fourth-biggest, Bank Negara Indonesia, lost 3.7 percent. Harry Su, head of research at Jakarta-based brokerage Bahana Securities, said the index could head lower from the 3,409.167 it ended at on Monday. "Banks will lead the fall. The index breached the 3,400 resistance level today," he said. It hit a low of 3,383.158 during the session. The markets have become more attractive in terms of valuations, with the 14-day relative strength indexes of all the regional markets hovering around 35, just above the 'oversold' mark of 30.
Singapore is trading at 14.0 times this year's projected earnings, the highest in the region and compared to all-Asia's 12.9. Thailand is trading at 11.6, lower than the 13.8 of Malaysia, 13.6 of Indonesia and 12.6 of the Philippines, Thomson Reuters StarMine data shows.