While the mounting economic chaos in Pakistan may trigger a change in 2011 even though its US-backed coalition dreads that possibility, things may nosedive in the neighbourhood. Western media (that foretell conflicts) predict a major war in the Middle East because the Israeli Premier believes that economic sanctions against Iran won't deliver quickly enough.
Although the US spokespersons deny these rumours, to The Economist (January 1 issue), without remedial action "2011might see the most destructive war for many years." The reason, not spelled as clearly, is Israel's 'belief' that Iran will soon acquire nuclear weapons, and must be stopped at any cost; given its false lobbying about Iraq's WMD, Israel may ignite another global conflict.
Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman says it will take a "decade" to establish peace with the Palestinians. A cable from the US embassy in Tel Aviv reported Israeli Army Chief General Gabi Ashkenazi, saying "I am preparing the Israeli army for a large scale war, since it is easier to scale down to a smaller operation than to do the opposite." Impliedly, the "large scale" war beginning 2011 could be scaled down by 2021.
Ashkenazi thinks Hamas has the potential "to bomb Tel Aviv, with Israel's highest population concentration" though, during the Gaza war, "hundreds" of rockets fired into Israel killed only 3 Israeli civilians as compared to 1,400 in Palestine. Yet, Ashkenazi says that, in future, Israel won't heed "restrictions on warfare in populated areas." Given these convictions, a war in 2011 seems imminent.
Palestinians seek only the re-establishment of pre-1967 war borders with Israel, and may allow land swaps for the larger illegal Israeli settlements. While Israel's insistence on defending these settlements (built in defiance of international law courtesy the US backing) will start the war, its covert aim is to decimate the elements defying the US-backed regimes in the Middle East.
While even non-Muslim states in South America are recognising Palestine, Arab regimes couldn't convince Israel to do so; this created the pressure groups that this war will target because they oppose Arab leaders' compromises on Israel's pushing back to the pre-1976 frontiers to bestow sovereignty on Palestine. But to the US, where until 2008 even Nelson Mandela ranked among terrorist, these groups are just terrorists.
Despite prodding by Palestinian Authority's Mahmud Abbas, President Obama couldn't stop illegal Israeli settlements, which convinced the Palestinians that the US isn't the self-proclaimed "honest broker", and till the next presidential elections, Obama would do nothing because America's business-military complex and the Republicans are outbidding the Democrats in wooing America's all-powerful Jewish lobby.
Israel will use this time gap to wage a war to crush Arab resistance because Egypt and Saudi Arabia no longer influence the Arab street power. While Algeria, Tunis and Jordan face domestic dissent, Libya is quiet. Shibley Telhami of the Maryland University, who regularly conducts regional opinion polls, says that Arabs no longer differentiate between their hate for American policies and liking for the ordinary Americans.
Instead of responding rationally, America's Republicans now demand that $3 billion-a-year US military aid to Israel be included in Pentagon's expenses to avoid a cut therein by austerity measures. But billions from tax-exempt US outfits keep flowing into Israel. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans realise that a US-backed ruthless Israel is destroying America's image.
Yet, a deceptive view gaining credence is that, after the Afghan and Iraqi experiences, the US won't back an Israeli offensive in the Middle East. This is a blunder because America would never abandon Israel. Despite the global hatred for it, Israel remains America's darling courtesy its supporters in America's business-military complex and the Congress.
This flawed Hammas-Hezbollah view relies on the visible shift of the US focus on the Caspian oil reserves and the fact that Gulf states now meet less than a tenth of US oil needs - far below the cost of maintaining fleets and bases in the region. Also, while the US presence there assures buyers of American goods a fair price for the oil, the US won't join a future conflict in the Gulf because China too avails this benefit at zero security cost.
But Dubai's Jebel Ali Port is visited most frequently by the US Navy ships and the US airbase in Qatar is its busiest foreign base, belying its lack of interest in a future Gulf war. Besides, the US-French pressure for taking legal action based on the UN inquiry that accuses Hezbollah of assassinating the former Lebanese Premier Rafiq Hariri, promises another civil war to test Hezbollah.
More importantly, after losing ground battles, America developed weapons that will assure success without fighting on the ground. America will soon deploy a new drone fitted with Gorgon Stare technology - nine video cameras transmitting images of a whole city to soldiers on the ground, and to analysts in the US tracking enemy movement without the enemy knowing about it.
The second is a liquid hydrogen-fuelled Global Observer that flies for days at a height of 65,000 feet, and surveys 280,000 square miles - bigger than the size of many countries. The third is X-47B the aircraft-based drone that carries laser-guided bombs. These gadgets form the next generation of unmanned systems to enter contested airspaces and attack enemies without detection.
These inventions have made Southern California the hub of drone "industry" like Haifa for the cluster bomb "industry". Americans no longer need to fight on the ground; they can be invisible partners of Israeli. This will change the profile of future wars that America will fight; weapons will descend from the sky like 'divine' punishment.
The 'divinity' of US surveillance and punishment renders them unquestionable. Recently, the US sought stationing of US homeland security officials at Pakistani airports, and access to passenger records. When Pakistan resisted this intrusive demand that could jeopardise its national security, the US scaled it down to screening passengers travelling to the US.
The quest for "full-spectrum dominance" - control of global political, economic and military developments - implies that America is taking over God's role on earth. But it won't work; people submit to a loving and caring, not a ruthless and self-centred god, and would fight back, which promises many more wars besides the one predicted for 2011.