Cocoa output in Indonesia could fall 5 percent this year, industry sources said on Wednesday, after the weather agency in the world's third-largest producer said rains would continue through June. Indonesia's weather agency forecast at a news conference on Wednesday that the dry season is likely to start in most areas only in July.
The country's dry season normally runs from April to September/October. A wetter-than-expected rainy season has already affected its plantation crops and could hit exploitation of coal and other resources. "When we say dry, it's not completely dry. It means rain intensity is easing," said Sri Woro, of the meteorological office.
She said that if La Nina continues until June as predicted, Indonesia would experience another "wet" dry season.
"It is a bit extreme, the weather, so of course there will be an impact to the cocoa," said Dakhri Sanusi, secretary general of the Indonesian Cocoa Association. "It is very wet (and) can reduce the producti?on," Sanusi added. "It will be down (in 2011) - production may be less by about 5 percent."
Late last year, Indonesia was forecast to produce 500,000 tonnes of cocoa beans in 2010, down from 550,000 tonnes in 2009, the Indonesian Cocoa Association said. Extreme weather and heavy rain caused by La Nina has hit the archipelago, disrupting agriculture and mining, including tin and sugar, helping push up global prices. The unusually long rainy season has wreaked havoc on most of the country's plantation crops, tightening supply to global markets and driving up palm oil prices to near three-year highs.