Argentine corn crops are at risk from hot, dry weather and rains are urgently needed in the Pampas farming belt to protect yields, the Rosario grains exchange said on Monday. Argentina is the world's second-biggest corn exporter. It is also the No 3 soyabean supplier, the top global provider of soyaoil and soyameal and a major source of wheat, especially for neighboring Brazil.
Despite concern about the current weather conditions, which has driven global soya prices higher, the grains exchange held its outlook for 2010/11 soya production at 49.5 million tonnes. It fine-tuned its forecast for corn production, estimating 21.3 million tonnes, versus a previous estimate for between 21 million and 22 million tonnes, but warned that "could easily be reduced if the necessary rains don't arrive."
"The crop that is most at risk right now is corn. It's going through the key flowering stage in most of the Pampas region and it needs water urgently," the report said, adding crops are growing more slowly than usual and some plantations are being affected by rust. Warm winds coupled with temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius are drying out fields and yields in the worst-affected areas will suffer if forecasts for more dry weather in central areas prove correct, the report said. Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez has forecast 2010/11 corn output at a record 26 million tonnes, while the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects 25 million tonnes.
SOYA, WHEAT The exchange said soya seeding had been slowed by parched soils to the point that if dry weather continues farmers may not be able to meet forecasts for 18.7 million hectares. "We've seen a delay in planting work in several areas in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and La Pampa," it said. "Conditions aren't good for soya."
The exchange said it had decided to keep its soya harvest outlook steady because it was too early to estimate how big the yields will be. Some industry analysts have lowered forecasts for corn and soya output in Argentina on concerns that dryness triggered by the La Nina weather phenomenon will hit production.
The government estimates a soya harvest of 52 million tonnes, as does the USDA. With regard to wheat, the exchange held its forecast for wheat output this season at 14 million tonnes, which would mark an 87 percent increase compared to last season's drought-hit harvest. Yields are averaging 3.16 tonnes per hectare, a record high.