When British economist Edward Hugh set up a blog that repeatedly predicted the euro could not survive, few people took notice. Not any more. With the European single currency facing its greatest challenge since it entered into general circulation in 2002 in the wake of the bailouts of eurozone members Greece and Ireland, his posts are now read by thousands of bankers, financial analysts and other policymakers around the world.
The 62-year-old is regularly invited to speak at economic conferences across the continent and the International Monetary Fund asked him to fly to Madrid in April to give his input on the state of the Spanish economy.
He is also among those advising the new president of the regional government of Catalonia, Artur Mas, whose moderate nationalist party, the Convergence and Union, won elections in the north-eastern Spanish region last month.
"I always thought it would lead somewhere, where it would lead I didn't know," he said as he sat by the fireplace at the stone house he shares with two friends in the village of Les Escuales near Figueres in north-eastern Spain.
His core argument is that European nations will struggle to pay for their generous pension and health services as their populations age and that the 17-nation eurozone lacks the institutional and fiscal tools to ensure the economies of member states converge as is needed for monetary union to work. "The two problems are now coinciding and financial markets are more aware of this than before," said Hugh, who has a masters degree in communication technologies from Manchester University and who studied at the London School of Economics but has earned a living mainly by giving private English lessons.
Borrowing costs for several debt-laden eurozone nations, including Spain, Portugal and Italy, have risen in recent weeks due to doubts over their ability to pay back their loans, raising questions over the future of the euro.