Announcing his much awaited Afghanistan strategy review on Thursday, US President Barack Obama asserted that the strategy is on track, and troop withdrawal would begin, as decided earlier, in July next year. He claimed that the Taliban's 'momentum' has been arrested in much of the country, and 'reversed' in some key areas, but said that "these gains remain fragile and reversible." Clearly, the US is not winning in Afghanistan.
In fact, independent survey reports note that Taliban attacks increased in the first nine months of this year by 60 percent over the same period last year. This year has been the costliest for the US forces in terms of lives lost. Either, directly or indirectly, the Taliban control more than half of Afghanistan.
One-third of the country is inaccessible to the Kabul government. Going by Obama's own account the 'gains' the Nato forces have made are reversible. In plain words, that means the US is in a bind; it can hold off the insurgents but not defeat them. The war has dragged on for nine long years, making it America's longest war since Vietnam. Its allies are impatient to get out. The campaign is getting more and more unpopular in the US itself, where according to a recent ABC News Survey, 60 percent of Americans believe it is not worth fighting. 54 percent support Obama's pledge to start withdrawing US troops next year. So victory is being redefined.
The aim now is to create a semblance of order by shifting the security responsibilities to the Afghan forces and to push Pakistan to launch a military operation in North Waziristan where, the US says, a much weakened al Qaeda and its hard line Taliban sympathisers - including the powerful Haqqani network - have taken refuge.
Hence, Obama iterated the old 'do more' demand at the strategy review event, saying that "we continue to insist to the Pakistani leaders that terrorists' safe havens within their border must be dealt with."
As Defence Secretary Robert Gates noted, Pakistan has not only deployed 140,000 troops in that region, it is also co-ordinating its military operations with the US and Afghan forces, making the insurgents "like the meat in the sandwich." But Pakistan has so far been reluctant to go into North Waziristan, saying its forces are already stretched too thin consolidating their position in other troubled areas such as South Waziristan and Swat; and that it will choose its own time to start an operation in North Waziristan.
Besides, COAS Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani has made it clear that Pakistan's security strategy remains India-centric. It, therefore, cannot afford to lower its guard on the eastern border. The US officials have also been saying - apparently not without reason - that elements in the Pakistani military are hedging their bets by continuing to support their 'old contacts' among the hard line Taliban, such as the Haqqani network.
Pakistan, in fact, is wary of an increased role for India in Afghanistan. In short, while the US sees Pakistan as key to a face-saving exit from Afghanistan, the India-Pakistan rivalry factor acts as a significant hindrance. It is in the interest of all concerned that India changes its present confrontational stance towards Pakistan, and resumes the long-stalled composite dialogue process to resolve all outstanding issues of dispute, especially Kashmir. Unless and until the two settle the issues of conflict between them, their traditional rivalries will continue to cast a dark shadow on peace prospects in Afghanistan.