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Dexia, China PMI hit Asian FX, intervention seen

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The central banks of India, Indonesia and Singapore were spotted selling dollars to bolster their currencies, dealers said.

The rupee, which hit an all-time low on Tuesday, strengthened for the day, bucking the trend of peers.

Currency players were cautious as they weighed the possibility that more central banks will intervene.

With the wariness, some investors were reluctant to sell emerging Asian currencies more aggressively, regarding them as a bit oversold, while short-term investors such as interbank speculators unloaded regional units.

"Fear factor is up, but there is no real conviction right now. I'd rather try to catch falling knives," said a European bank dealer in Singapore, adding he would buy the Singapore dollar around 1.3070 per the US dollar, around the session's low.

Another dealer in Kuala Lumpur said he would wait for "better levels" to buy the US dollar against the emerging Asian currencies, adding the market appeared to hold dollar-long positions.

The dealer said he won't buy dollars now while Asian central banks and exporters are selling them, but later he will accumulate the US currency because there's "too much trouble in the world."

Emerging Asian currencies have slid this month on deepening worries about European debt crisis and signs of rising dollar funding costs.

On Wednesday, regional currencies came under more pressure after a Belgian newspaper reported that the Franco-Belgium bailout of Dexia bank -- the first casualty of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis -- was going to be the subject of new talks.

A preliminary survey on Chinese manufacturing renewed worries of a hard landing for the world's second-largest economy, boosting global recession fears, pushing down emerging Asian currencies further.

The media report and the HSBC flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) dragged down Asian stocks and the euro.

Asian currencies "should fall further because a Chinese slowdown would hurt growth and exports for the rest of Asia," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist for Asia ex-Japan at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.

WON

Dollar/won hit a one-month high of 1,152.2 as foreign investors continued to sell Seoul shares. The pair breached the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of its October slides.

It is seen facing a resistance at its previous high of 1,153.2 as investors are wary of possible dollar-selling intervention by the foreign exchange authorities above 1,150.

"Given intervention possibilities, exporters will get more active above 1,150," said a senior foreign bank dealer in Seoul.

But some expect further gains for the dollar, considering foreign investors' massive stock sales. Foreign investors have unloaded a combined net 1.77 trillion won ($1.54 billion) during the five consecutive sessions.

RUPEE

Dollar/rupee fell as much as 1.7 percent from the session's high after state-run banks dumped dollars, dealers said.

But global risk aversion meant the dollar/rupee will remain strong in the near term.

Foreign funds have been pulling out of the shaky stock market over the past week while oil refiners who import about three-quarters of India's crude consumption have been heavy buyers of dollars in recent sessions.

SINGAPORE DOLLAR

US dollar/Singapore dollar rose to 1.3074, the highest since Oct 6, but agent banks of the city-state's central bank were spotted selling the American currency.

Traders reckon the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is keen to cap rallies in the pair to below the 1.3100 level for the time being.

However, risk aversion remains supportive of the pair with markets still keen to buy US dollars on dips, targeting 1.3200, the high on Oct. 3-4.

RUPIAH

Dollar/rupiah rose on strong demand from foreign names while the central bank was spotted selling dollars, dealers said.

BAHT

Dollar/baht gained as offshore players bought the pair following a weaker Singapore dollar, and the pair is seen rising more.

It may look better to buy the pair for possible breaching of 31.32 and moving to 32.00-32.10, analysts said.

But some players are wary of possible dollar-selling intervention by the central bank.

"Dollar/baht will be capped around 31.30 as Asian central banks including BOT will be in the market to calm it down," said a Bangkok-based dealer.

Copyright Reuters, 2011