Markets

Palm edges down on slowing growth fears

Published Updated

Gloomy economic climate pushed palm oil futures lower for a third day although losses were capped by favourable fundamentals such as supply that was starting to tighten on erratic weather.

Palm oil jumped nearly 20 percent from an October low of 2,754 ringgit and has eased a little on euro zone debt crisis and concerns that the recent run-up was over done.

"The market was expecting some correction due to the past rise. Technically a correction at this point would be seen as something healthy for the market," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

"The fundamentals, such as the weather, haven't changed and are still strong. Exports seem to be good too," he added.

By the midday break, benchmark February palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 0.2 percent to 3,169 ringgit ($997) per tonne. Prices on Tuesday fell as low as 3,145 ringgit, a level last seen on Nov 11.

Overall traded volumes stood at 5,603 lots of 25 tonnes each, much lower than the usual 12,500 lots, on investor caution over the unfolding economic gloom.

Technicals remained bearish with Reuters analyst Wang Tao expecting palm oil will fall more to 3,092 ringgit per tonne as indicated by a double-top pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis.

Fundamentals can turn more bullish with Malaysian Meteorological Department issuing orange stage warning that heavy rains could persist till Thursday and trigger floods in parts of Pahang -- key oil palm growing area that accounts for 15 percent of production.

Heavy rains tend to reduce harvesting rounds in oil palm estates and floods will complicate the transport of the edible oil to mills and refineries.

"Yield quality is affecting. There is less production coming in and it is a matter of time when the floods set in," said a planter with estates in Pahang.

The market is bracing itself for low production in the last quarter due to a seasonal decline in yields and La Nina driven floods triggering floods during the monsoon season.

Buyers in China, India and Pakistan may rush in to snap up palm oil cargoes before any new price upswing makes the tropical oil expense as they restock after major festivals. Export data showed firm growth.

Brent crude fell near $108 on Wednesday as data from the United States and China showed a slowdown in economic growth, stoking fears of weaker demand from the world's two largest oil users.

Weaker crude and concerns of slower growth in China, the world's second largest edible oil buyer, weighed on other vegetable oil markets

US soyoil for December delivery edged down 1.9 percent and China's most active May 2012 soybean oil contract dropped 1 percent.

Copyright Reuters, 2011