Markets

Crown eases, forint jumps; investors weigh interest rate trends

Published August 1, 2017 Updated August 1, 2017 07:15pm

Only the crown bucked a strengthening of regional currencies as investors pondered the odds of an interest rate hike at the Czech central bank's meeting on Thursday.

A hike would be the first in Prague for almost a decade and the first in the region since early 2013.

The tale of the two currencies, the forint and the crown, exemplifies uncertainty over global and regional interest rate trends, market participants said.

"The Fed will hike rates and the Czechs will hike rates, and the European Central bank will be less loose, but there is uncertainty over the timing," said Gergely Urmossy, an analyst at Erste Bank in Budapest.

He said political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration in the US caused volatility in the dollar.

"The Hungarian (economic and political) stability seems to over-compensate low rates now," Urmossy added.

While investors were offloading the dollar globally, the forint could get additional help from flows from the zloty which is under pressure due to a judiciary reform in Poland that is causing tensions with Brussels, market participants said.

The forint hit its strongest level against the dollar since late 2013, at 256.25, and one Budapest-based dealer said it may test 250, also helping it versus the euro.

Against the euro it touched a 21-month high. Trading at 303.31 at 0956 GMT it was up 0.4 percent even though Hungary's central bank is the most dovish in the region.

The crown, meanwhile, was down 0.2 percent to 26.138, after setting a 3-week low, just two days before a possible rate hike.

Half of analysts in a Reuters poll last week projected a hike. A weaker crown may put pressure on the bank to lift rates, while rate setters may also argue for a wait-and-see stance.

Inflation trends are also uncertain. Poland was the first in the region to release July inflation data on Monday, and its annual figure was slightly higher than expected.

Czech, Hungarian and Polish Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) released on Tuesday showed a drop in activity, but still indicated that healthy growth continues.

Surging Western European PMIs did not weaken Central European currencies against the euro as the region's exports benefit from a rise in demand in the euro zone.

"If Europe performs well, that will also lift Hungary," Urmossy said.

 

Copyright Reuters, 2017