Markets

Europe woes weigh on Asia Fx, short covering supports

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The South Korean won and the Singapore dollar were the biggest gainers in the group while the Indonesian rupiah was the session's worst performer.

The eurozone's debt problems continued to plague currency investors, who were awaiting the outcome of 11 billion euro ($14.88 billion) worth of auctions by Spain and France due today, which could provide clues on investor appetite for their bonds.

"I am still not overly optimistic on a sustained recovery in Asia ex-Japan as pressure is still evident on euro zone bonds, necessitating heavy buying from the ECB," said Sacha Tihanyi, senior currency strategist for Scotia Capital in Hong Kong.

"It would show that without strong ECB intervention it may be near impossible to prevent additional wholesale bond selling. I think the outlook remains unconstructive in the near term for both EUR and Asia ex-Japan," he said asked what if results of French and Spanish bond auctions are weak.

France, which has become the bloc's latest member to face market scrutiny over its fiscal deficit despite a top-notch credit rating, called for more aggressive ECB bond purchases.

Germany, however, remains firmly opposed to using the central bank as the lender of last resort, saying it is up to individual governments to put their fiscal houses in order.

Emerging Asian currencies have been under selling pressure this week as French borrowing costs continued to rise on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's purchases of Italian and Spanish debts failed to reassure markets.

"We find very little ability to go beyond the tail risk of a Greece exit (from the EU) in forecasting events as the year-end approaches, but we do know that uneasy feeling of a major tail risk is ahead, the big question is when," said Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, regional rates and foreign exchange strategist for CIMB Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur.

"From money markets facing a dollar shortage in Asia and the euro zone and the need for the EFSF to be given a banking license to step up monetization of the euro zone debt, the list of contentious issues are ever long," he said, adding he expects emerging Asian currencies to stay under pressure.

WON

Dollar/won turned lower on sales by South Korean exporters and some stop-loss offers with EUR and stocks rebounding, dealers said.

Earlier, the pair broke through a resistance zone between 1,135-1,140 on offshore funds' demand.

But it failed to pierce the next resistance area between 1,145-1,151, where the low of September 20 and the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement level of its October slide sit.

"Given onshore supplies, it looks difficult to add long positions above mid-1,130," said a senior foreign bank dealer in Seoul.

Meanwhile, some players are cautious over possible dollar-selling intervention by South Korea's foreign exchange authorities, especially around 1,150.

In late September, the authorities were spotted selling dollars to push dollar/won to 1,150.0.

SINGAPORE DOLLAR

US dollar/Singapore dollar also slid after it failed to completely clear a resistance at 1.3008, the 76.4 percent retracement of its October decline.

Earlier, the pair rose to as high as 1.3010 after worse-than-expected export data.

PHILIPPINE PESO

Dollar/Philippine peso turned lower as interbank speculators took profits.

Initially, the pair broke above the top of the Ichimoku cloud on worries about deepening European debt crisis.

"The market is slightly heavy although the euro is holding 1.34 level. It is looking to sell on rallies," said a European bank dealer in Manila, adding he would join the move.

Copyright Reuters, 2011