Markets

Latam stocks slip, but hold breakout levels

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The MSCI Latin American stock index slipped 0.17 percent from a more than one-month high hit in the previous session.

Despite the dip, both Mexico's and Brazil's markets held above closely watched levels on their charts that could mark a breakout from a downtrend that has persisted through 2011.

Before a rebound in October, Latin American stocks recorded their worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis on fears of a US recession, slowing growth in China and the risk Europe's debt crisis could detonate a global financial meltdown.

Hopes that Europe's leaders will beef up their rescue funds, as well as some improving economic data in the United States and China, could be setting up stocks to climb back to their highs for the year, analysts said.

"The trend of markets is changing with velocity and consistency as the worst-case scenarios seem to be fading," said Fanuel Fuentes, an analyst at brokerage Monex in Mexico City.

Redemptions from Latin American-focused US-based mutual funds have been waning and assets under management rebounded from a two-year low this month, according to data from fund tracker Lipper, a Thomson Reuters company.

Riskier assets like stocks and emerging market currencies fell on Tuesday on reports European Union finance ministers canceled a meeting set for Wednesday as details of issues to be discussed at the gathering have not been finalized.

Global markets stabilized after an EU spokesman said a summit of euro zone leaders would proceed as scheduled. Doubts remained whether it would deliver a detailed plan to contain the region's debt crisis, as markets are expecting.

Brazilian stocks have also drawn support from the country's move to cut interest rates in late August and its move to lower borrowing costs even more last week.

The first cut likely helped lift Brazilian bank earnings in the third quarter, a Reuters poll showed. Banco Bradesco is the first to report on Wednesday.

Brazil's Bovespa fell 1.07 percent to 56,285.99 points, holding above the 56,000 level.

The Bovespa rallied nearly 16 percent from Oct. 4 to a five-week intraday high in the previous session that broke through a chart trendline that has defined a slump since April.

If the index can hold above the 56,000 level and keep advancing, it could suggest that stocks could see a sustained advance in the coming months, Monex's Fuentes said.

There is a similar technical outlook for Mexico's IPC stock in, which edged up 0.07 percent to 35,290.15 points.

The IPC surged past its one-year exponential moving average in the previous session. The index has been unable to hold gains above that average since falling below it in August.

If the IPC can hold above the 35,000 level and break past 35,500, it will suggest the index could continue back toward a record high hit at the beginning of the year, analysts said.

"It will all depend on if we get good news out of Europe. This could all still go south again," said Roberto Galvan, an analyst at brokerage Actinver in Mexico City.

"But if we can stay above 35,000 it is a good sign, and we are seeing the same technical patterns in US stocks."

Chile's IPSA index shed 1.39 percent as retailer Falabella lost 1.09 percent, but traders looked at the losses as profit-taking after a more than 16 percent rally from Oct. 4.

Copyright Reuters, 2010