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Australia export prices climb, boon to economy

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Friday's data showed export prices climbed 4.0 percent in the three months to September, outstripping expectations for the third straight quarter. In contrast, import prices were flat when analysts had expected a rise of 1.0 percent.

That left export prices up 6.6 percent on the same quarter of last year, while a 1.7 percent fall in import prices over the year helped provide some offset to domestically generated inflation pressures.

"It's very positive for incomes and profits in the country," said Michael Workman, a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank.

"People thought the miners made a lot of money last (financial) year -- wait until they see this one," he added. "That in turn supports their huge investment plans."

Australia's terms of trade, or the ratio of export to import prices, looked to have risen around 4 percent in the third quarter to the highest since records began in 1870 and more than double the average for the whole of the 1990s.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has estimated that for every year the terms of trade stays at such stratospheric levels, it generates extra income worth 12 to 15 percent of the country's A$1.3 trillion of annual economic output.

This A$150-200 billion windfall shows up in profits, wages and employment and is fuelling massive investment as miners scramble to meet demand from China and India.

It has been a major reason the RBA has remained optimistic the country can dodge the worst of the weakness hitting Europe and the United States, though it recently conceded that the crisis in the euro zone was now so dire that global growth was bound to suffer.

FOCUS ON CORE INFLATION

Sky-high export prices have also helped lift the local dollar above parity against its US counterpart, making many imports cheaper from cars to computers, TVs and phones.

In the third quarter, falling prices for petrol and pharmaceuticals helped offset increases in the cost of gold, fertilisers and clothing.

The drop in petrol should also help restrain consumer price inflation (CPI) for the third quarter, data for which are due out on Oct. 26.

The RBA has even flagged the possibility of a cut in its 4.75 percent cash rate should core inflation prove benign.

Downward revisions to key measures of underlying inflation for the second quarter made by the Statistics Bureau have made the outlook for inflation seem a little less threatening.

A slackening in the labour market has also lessened the risk of a breakout in wage growth, offering a chance that inflation may not accelerate above the RBA's 2 to 3 percent target band as it had feared.

Analysts generally assume that a rise of 0.6 percent or less in underlying inflation in the third quarter could provide scope for a cut as early as the RBA's next meeting on Nov. 1. Anything higher would make easing a more difficult proposition.

"We currently expect a 0.7 percent rise in underlying inflation," said Kieran Davies, chief economist at RBS.

"If this proves correct, the RBA is likely to leave rates on hold even as it maintains an easing bias, partly because most indicators have improved since early October," he added. "But we would consider factoring in an insurance rate cut if we prove too high on inflation."

Copyright Reuters, 2011