Markets

Aussie & NZ dollars sit on gains, await EU leads

Published Updated

Aussie hovering at $0.9890, having been as high as $0.9985 overnight after rallying from a 10-month low of $0.9622 hit earlier this week.

A break below $0.9850, the 38.2 Fibo of the recent $0.9622/$0.9986 move, could be the first warning of a corrective high in place ahead of $0.9535-75, according to a trader. Resistance found at $1.0079, then $1.0110.

NZ dollar drifts to $0.7864, after rallying 1.2 pct to an offshore peak of $0.7958, from $0.7906 in NY.

Strong resistance building at $0.7954, a 200-day moving average, while support initially at $0.7810 and then $0.7787.

Asian stocks were subdued with S&P futures 0.3 pct lower, reflecting Wall Street's softer tone late in the session. US equities rose more than 1 pct but ended off their highs, suggesting the risk rally could be running out of steam.

Traders cited an FT report that a split had opened over Greece's bailout terms, in a clear reminder of the many hurdles laying ahead to tackle the region's debt crisis.

Dealers suspect the bounce was merely a temporary correction ahead of a fresh wave of risk aversion.

Aussie weighed by outflows in the AUD/JPY cross, reversing yen selling seen earlier in Asia.

New Zealand Finance Minister Bill English says the mood at IMF/World bank meeting was ugly and he is more hopeful than confident that a solution to the euro zone debt crisis will be found.

He also says NZ cannot avoid the fallout of the euro zone debt crisis and is already feeling the effects of global woes via lower commodity prices and currency.

EU officials are studying ways to raise the 440 bln euro fund used to bail out Portugal and Ireland.

Disagreements, particularly from Germany which is not that enthused about the idea, could weigh heavily on an already fragile sentiment.

The kiwi shed almost 7 pct last week on the global woes, while weakening prices of dairy products -- NZ's top commodity export -- puts pressure on export earnings.

Markets have buried the prospect of any rate hike next month and even priced in an 8 pct risk of a rate cut, compared with a 32 pct chance implied in Australia.

That is weighing on the Aussie, stuck around NZ$1.2545 on the kiwi , off a two-week peak of NZ$1.2672 earlier in the week.

No major data due in NZ, Australia. , while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gives a speech at 2100 GMT. He might offer some reaction to the market's mostly negative response to last week's Operation Twist. Any hint that even more easing is possible could help underpin risk appetite.

NZ government bonds also weaker, sending local yields up to 6 bps higher along the curve.

Australian bond futures follow US Treasuries lower, with the three-year contract down 0.03 points at 96.390. The 10-year dipped 0.065 points to 95.720.

Copyright Reuters, 2011