Vietnam Jan-Sept GDP growth slows, inflation ease

HANOI: Vietnam's economy grew 5.76 percent in the first nine months of the year, slower than the same period last year w
24 Sep, 2011

The government's target for full-year GDP growth this year is 6 percent amid the region's worst inflation after growth of 6.78 percent last year.

Annual inflation in Vietnam eased in September from a month earlier, the first decline since August 2010, according to government data that gives ammunition to proponents of looser monetary conditions.

The country's September consumer price index (CPI) rose 22.42 percent from a year ago, slowing from an annual growth of 23.02 percent last month, the General Statistics Office said in its monthly report.

In August 2010, CPI grew 8.18 percent from a year ago, below an annual growth of 8.19 percent the previous month.

Analysts fear as the inflation rate eases the authorities will succumb to pressure to ease tight monetary conditions which could reverse hard-won gains against rising prices.

The government aims to keep inflation this year at 15-17 percent. But the target could be hard to attain.

In August, the government said it intended to raise the minimum wage for non-state employees. The increase, of between 27 percent and 68 percent depending on the type of company and geographical location, will come into effect on Oct. 1.

The salary rise could prompt domestic market prices to increase further, financial experts have said.

Vietnam's annual inflation this year could hit 18.7 percent, the Asian Development Bank said in a report earlier this month, having revised up its forecast of 13.3 percent released in April.

The Economist Intelligence Unit says Vietnam's real GDP growth will slow to 6.2 percent in 2011 while inflation will accelerate to an average of 18.9 percent this year.

INDUSTRY, CONSTRUCTION PUSH GROWTH

Vietnam's GDP growth in the first nine months is led by the industry and construction sectors, which grew 6.62 percent from a year ago, contributing 2.76 percentage points to overall growth, the statistics office said.

The service sector expanded 6.24 percent, contributing 2.61 percentage points, while the agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors grew 2.39 percent in January-September, making up 0.39 percentage points of the country's economic growth, the report said.

In its World Economic Outlook report released on Sept. 20, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth projection for Vietnam this year to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent in earlier forecast.

The IMF latest projection is similar to the ADB's forecast for Vietnam's growth in 2011.

The IMF report also raised Vietnam's inflation forecast this year to 18.8 percent from 16.6 percent forecast earlier.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

Read Comments