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The Leading Economic Index increased for the fourth straight month by 0.3 percent to 116.2 in August after a 0.6 percent rise in July.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise 0.1 percent.
"There is a growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the firm.
He said the chance of a recession happening remains below 50-50, yet the odds have "certainly increased in recent months."
Copyright Reuters, 2011