In the modern-day battle of economies, countries are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Instead, the fight has been taken to the cities, which compete to attract or retain capital, talent and knowledge.
Shanghai has challenged New York and London to become the next financial hub. To grab the high-end IT work, Bangalore is catching up fast with Santa Clara. While Mumbai and Karachi scramble for regional investments, Toyota city and Stuttgart are well-poised to upset the established order set by the Detroit three.
Cities around the world are driving growth. A study conducted by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) in March 2011 concluded that 1.5 billion people (a fifth of global population) living in 600 cities, contributed $30 trillion in 2007 - more than half of worlds GDP. In 2025, nearly two billion people living in another top 600 cities would drive global growth and produce $64 trillion - 60 percent of projected global GDP in 2025.
"Companies trying to identify the most promising growth opportunities need to be able to map this movement and spot the individual cities where their businesses are most likely to thrive," commented the report.
Almost three-quarters of the top 600 cities are in the developing world. So where is Pakistan standing?
According to MGI, Karachi is a mega-city due to a large population, and Lahore will be by 2025. The fact that 136 new cities, all from the developing world, will enter the top 600 by 2025 warrants that policy focus and debate must shift to making Pakistani cities well-equipped to break into the league of top-performers.
Policymakers need to start from the basic lacunas and stumbling blocks. The Planning Commission estimates that there are nine cities which currently have populations of more than one million people each and this tally could grow to 17 cities by 2030.
Pakistani cities - which according to some estimates contribute over 70 percent of the countrys GDP - are acutely congested. Dubai accommodates roughly 200,000 people in each square kilometer due to vertical expansion, while Pakistan can only house 6,000 people due to ban on high rise buildings.
Haphazard constructions, urban sprawls, and regulatory bias towards residential areas have stifled commercial activities and the creation of business districts, public spaces and community centers.
According to the Planning Commissions task force on urban development, building regulations do not allow high-rise, dense and mixed-use (live/work) buildings. Due to excess demand and restriction on using residential area for commercial purposes; offices, businesses, restaurants, and even educational institutions resort to illegal operations from houses.
Pakistani cities are also devoid of ample libraries, museums, parks, playgrounds, science and community centers, cinemas and theater halls. The process of commercialisation is tedious and frought with red tape. High commercialisation fees; up to 40 percent of the property cost are another impediment. Multiple building control authorities in major cities add to the complexity.
It is a welcome development that the Planning Commission has identified in its New Growth Framework the transformation of Pakistani cities into engines of growth. It has recommended development of city clusters and called for amending the zoning and building regulations to match market preferences to support high density, high-rise and un-segregated land use patterns.
It is interesting to note that every year Pakistan adds the equivalent of an Ireland to its population; every two years, an Austria; every three years, a Greece; every four years, a Netherlands; and every five years, a Taiwan. Pakistan, obviously, adds these numbers without policies and synergies which made cities in these countries bastions of growth.
Unlocking the huge potential of cities would spur growth in construction, stimulate commercial activities and create strong agglomerated economies. However, these things will require conducive zoning and building regulations, availability of space and investment in local economies.
Change is brewing outside, its on the way. And it may just pass Pakistanis by if policymakers don pay attention.