Addressing his commanders last week, General Kayani sounded as if - in the words of The Wall Street Journal - he was pleading for institutional respect from his fellow countrymen. Now that the army high command is awakening to the political and economic realities of the country, there is a need to set the priorities straight, and accordingly revisit the military and political strategy.
Pakistans stance on Kashmir cannot be undermined at any cost and diplomatic pressure on this front should remain in full throttle as the issue is not premised upon mere emotions. The fate of water availability - the backbone of agriculture and indeed life in the country, depends on the rivers that stream from the Indus Basin situated in the Indian-occupied Kashmir. The Indus Water Treaty signed in 1960 is still being repeatedly violated by India by construction of number of dams on waters that are earmarked for Pakistan.
Without a thriving economy, it is neither possible to become strong militarily nor politically. The country cannot sustain a strong army with weak economy as it has to rely on foreign loans and aid that hinder the exercise of an independent foreign policy; hence, defies the very purpose of a strong military. In other words, the question arises whether Pakistan should hold on to Kashmir, at the cost of exclusion of Pakistan itself.
Lessons should be learned from the Chinese who have not forfeited their claim on Taiwan, yet concurrently, they are not aggressive on their stance. Rather, they are diligently working on the economic development of China with a firm resolve and belief that if China is strong and thriving, Taiwan would want to be a part of China. Similar is the story of East Germany that tore down the Berlin Wall to join relatives who enjoyed much higher standards of living under thriving consumerism.
On a similar note, if Pakistan becomes economically strong and is on the path of development, Kashmiris may be even more willing to be a part of Pakistan - potentially creating an unstoppable force of public opinion in favour of Pakistan. At present, India is marching ahead with a growth rate in excess of eight percent per year and consequently has more benefits to offer to Kashmiris than Pakistan.
Similarly, the rise of militancy and suicide bombing within Pakistan is largely attributed to socioeconomic deprivation that has been capitalised by a number of geo-strategic actors operating in the region. A high GDP growth rate in Pakistan can provide education and viable job and entrepreneurial opportunities to the deprived poor and lower-middle class.
Now if the economy is really on top of the agenda within the khakis, then the army brass must introspect and revisit their India-centric approach. None of the national goals can be achieved or be sustained with a weak economy. The army must focus on its core job as is now being categorically expressed by the Army Chief.
Pakistan is at a crossroads today. The country can either pile up arms and ammunition to protect its eastern and western borders, or save itself from forces within. Besides, in the battle of running a deterrence strategy against India, Pakistans current economic situation is a major stumbling block. Suffering high inflation and low government revenues, its becoming hard to keep pace in the arm race with India, whose economy is growing at a rate that is three to four times that of Pakistan. Although Indias spending on defence is at about 6 times that of Pakistan, but relative to its national income, Pakistans military spending is much higher than its neighbour.
In the meanwhile, India is producing scores of PhDs in science and engineering; it is in the upper strata in the world of information technology - whereas Pakistan lags far behind in these fields of a new growth paradigm. India is also becoming the land of entrepreneurs, where big names like Tata, Ambani and Mittal are creating waves in the developed world, whereas in Pakistan the entrepreneurial spirit is being dampened by institutional and political meddling and inconsistency in policies.
The sooner the country reaches an understanding that Pakistan is getting hollow in the process of accumulating weapons, the earlier it will diverge from the path of becoming like Afghanistan and Iraq. It is time to learn from the experiences of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and put the economy on top of the agenda.
It is high time to engage the private sector in reshaping white elephants (PSEs) and generate the much-needed employment for the countrys burgeoning youth through private sector investment, instead of doling them employment through government managed businesses.