There has been much buzz regarding the hydropower potential in Gilgit Baltistan - especially after the recently published report on Gilgit Baltistan by the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and the regional government.
The report said the power potential of the region is around 42,000 MW, which is massive, and impressive. But unfortunately, if there was ever a case of misusing the word potential, this is it.
Ideally, a country facing 5000-6000 MW shortage should go all out if there exists such a huge potential. The GB area at present has a total electricity supply of no more than 100 MW, mostly met by small-sized hydropower plants. There has not been enough investment made in the electricity sector for up-gradation of the transmission and distribution network, which has kept the line losses for the area at around 30 percent.
First and foremost, the potential is based on the idea that there will be mega hydropower projects for GB in the next 10-20 years to fulfil the countrys rising electricity demand. Experts are of the opinion that mega hydropower projects, especially those located in GB, are not the answer, as they are either technically unfeasible, or economically unviable, or both.
A case in point is the Diamer Bhasha Dam that has been on the radar for a long period, yet remains in the infancy stage. "One reason why the idea of Bhasha dam should be scrapped is that it is located in an arid zone where there is little to no rainfall even in the season. If they persist with it, by the time Bhasha dam is built, there will be no water left in the Indus River and the Tarbela dam", said Professor Mohammad Iqbal, Pakistans only known glaciologist, speaking earlier to BR Research.
Ridiculing the 42000 MW myth, Iqbal added that there is no way the government can generate more than 500 MW in the foreseeable future. One major obstacle is that of connectivity to the national grid, which will require a lot of direct and indirect investment since GB is not connected to the national grid with the nearest point on the grid being 350-km afar.
Moreover, there will be huge cost overruns in the mountainous area as new routes will have to be put in place in order to get line and grid connectivity.
The case of the proposed Bunji dam near Gilgit with a potential of over 7000 MW electricity, can be considered as an example of the costs associated with the projects in the area. A feasibility study conducted in 2005 estimated the project cost at $3.8 billion with a completion period of 12 years. Experts, however, argue that building a dam of such magnitude will require at least 15 years - hence higher costs.
Such high costs associated with a single mega hydropower project kill the very purpose of hydroelectricity - which is its relative cheapness in comparison to alternate fuels. It would be much better, as advised by the experts, to look for small and medium sized dams for electricity generation instead of the unviable mega dams in geographically challenging areas.