BR Research

No more a Next economy

Published March 24, 2011 Updated March 24, 2011 12:00am

If the world of finance continues to produce catchwords in the way it has in recent years, neologists should find themselves in high demand.
A decade ago, things were still rather slow. Goldman Sachs - that seems to have a monopoly on creating new memes - came up with Bric (which stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China).
But just as the world caught-on outside the clique of investment bankers to average drawing room conversationalists - and it took nearly ten years to do that - the financial community has come up with so many new marketing ploys that its hard to keep a track.
Still, some of the recent and relatively more discussed are worth mentioning. These include, HSBCs Civets, Standard Chartered Banks The 7 percent club, Spanish bank BBVAs Eagles, Goldman Sachs revised Bric called Growth Markets and the most recent Citibanks Global Growth Generators(3G).
Like Brics, Civets is an acronym for specific countries (for Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa to be specific). BBVAs Eagles is also an acronym, though not of countries, but of "Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies", which, in turn, enlists the economies named in the table.
Others aren fixed; for instance SCBs 7 percent club is more general - allowing any of the high performing economy to replace the existing ones. Even Sachs Growth Markets and Citibanks 3G boast the same feature: anybody can join, provided they meet the criteria.
The benefits of being a part of these elite banking coinage are many. If a country is included, it can attract hordes of portfolio investments and also foreign direct investments. It can also raise loans, by selling sovereign debt papers, relatively easier.
Domestically, it can create a sense of national pride and a spirit for continuous efforts to sustain growth and reforms - and that in turn can redirect expatriates back to the home country, as did the Non-Resident Indians.
But where does Pakistan fit in all this? The answer: nowhere. Pakistan did form a part of the now-forgotten Next Eleven once, but now it is not featured anywhere. That is because, while most of the countries in Sachs 2003-2005 list have
exed, Pakistan has not. If anybody has doubts, simply compare the list Next Eleven with more recent lists Growth Markets and 3G.
Still, since it ain over till its over, Pakistan still has the chance to make to the top lists, if it competes for it. It must learn from the lessons of how the once Next Eleven made to the latest lists. Also it should try linking domestic economy with the 3Gs, the Growth Markets, the Civets and the Eagles and so froth.
Exporting goods, services and labour to these countries can help Pakistan track their growth and consequently grow with them. And some of these - such as Russia, China, Turkey - are already trying to reach out to Pakistan for better economic ties.
Indeed, there are lot many challenges ahead for Pakistan; pushing through economic reforms, removing nepotism and kleptomania, educating a huge mass of uneducated youth and so forth. But above all, Pakistan must avoid being what Citibank advises to its 3G countries: "don be unlucky and don blow it".


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Lexicon BRIC Next Eleven Civets * The 7 percent club Eagles Growth Markets 3G**
Neologist Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs HSBC Standard Chartered Bank Spains BBVA Goldman Sachs Citigroup
Year 2001 2003 & 2005 Early 2010 Late 2010 Late 2010 Early 2011 Early 2011
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Brazil Bangladesh Colombia China Kazakhstan Brazil Brazil Bangladesh
Russia Egypt Indonesia India Tajikistan Russia Russia China
India Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam Angola India India Egypt
China Iran Egypt Ethiopia Sudan China China India
Mexico Turkey Uganda Chad Korea Mexico Indonesia
Nigeria South Africa Mozambique Sierra Leone Indonesia South Korea Iraq
Pakistan Azerbaijan Rwanda Mexico Turkey Mongolia
Philippines Turkmenistan Cambodia Turkey Indonesia Nigeria
South Korea Egypt Philippines
Turkey Taiwan Sri Lanka
Vietnam Vietnam
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* Originally coined by EIU in 2009, but popularised by HSBC - **3G stands for Global Growth Generators