Markets

Coffee rebounds as Greek deal looms, sugar mixed

Published Updated

Raw sugar futures lost ground on profit-taking and producer sales after a recent surge as the market seemingly stalled in stopping short of its 200-day moving average at 27.59 cents, analysts said.

New York's September arabica futures increased 2.10 cents to trade at $2.484 per lb at 12:12 p.m. EDT (1612 GMT).

London's September robusta contract went up $30 to trade at $2,306 per tonne.

"We're seeing a bit of a technical bounce ... particularly in coffee," said Country Hedging Inc analyst Sterling Smith.

The outlook for coffee though is for further losses going forward, analysts said.

"With a (front month) peak at 306.25 cents per lb, almost as high as 1997's record 320.00, there is a possibility prices will plummet as they did in 1995 and 1998 after the last two massive spike highs," said Nicole Elliott, technical analyst at Mizuho.

"Bearish momentum is close to the strongest in a decade."

Brenda Sullivan, technical analyst at Sucden, said arabica futures broke down "below a potential neckline as well as breaking below the uptrend which has been in place since June 2010 (and this) open the potential for downside targets below $2.29 a lb."

Dealers said the technical outlook for the London robusta market differed from the weakness seen in New York arabicas.

"London coffee futures on a second-month continuation chart have not yet broken the uptrend from May 2010 and in fact could have some short-term support near $2,246 a tonne.

This is a potential channel line for today," Sullivan said. Arabica coffee futures tapped their lowest level in nearly five months, nearing the 200-day moving average at $2.393 per tonne, basis September.

It then reversed higher with a lift from the commodity complex as riskier assets became attractive again as Greece was expected to avoid a debt default.

SUGAR MIXED AND COCOA FIRMER

Sugar prices were mixed, with raws easing after hitting a 2-1/2 month top on Monday.

"The expected oversupply on the global sugar market of almost 1 million tonnes should prevent prices from returning to their highs of over 35 cents marked at the start of the year," Commerzbank said in a daily commodities note.

London's August white sugar futures rose $3.90 to trade at $743.50 per tonne at 12:15 p.m. New York's July raw sugar contract eased 0.24 cent to trade at 27.23 cents.

Cocoa also neared its 200-day moving average, which was just above the market at $3,055 per tonne, basis September.

The market remained stuck in the range it has held for the past five weeks and found a lift in fund buying and the weak US dollar, dealer said.

New York's September cocoa futures rose $58 to end at $3,026 per tonne. London's September cocoa futures gained 27 pounds to close at 1,884 pounds per tonne .

Copyright Reuters, 2011