Copper rises as dollar falls, outlook improves

06 Apr, 2011

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was $9,520 per tonne at 1031 GMT, up from a close of $9,390 on Tuesday, when it shrugged off an interest rate hike in China.

"In China we are expecting one more interest rate hike.

But (China's central bank) is not expected to be too aggressive,"

Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner said, "The dollar may remain weak and that may be a key support for industrial metals."

The euro rose to a 14-month high of $1.4292, ahead of an expected interest rate hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday. A weaker dollar makes metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.

China's central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday for the fourth time since October in an effort to battle inflation.

"A new mood of optimism seems to be in the air following Chinese officials' comments indicating that inflation was under control and that tightening of monetary policy may not be so marked," Fairfax said in a note.

IMPORT REBOUND?

The market is also expecting China's copper, iron ore and coal imports in March to rebound from the multi-month lows posted in February. March shipments of refined copper are expected to rise from February's 27-month low.

"The general expectation is that those numbers will be reasonably positive because we know that some imports were delayed from February to March due to the Chinese New Year holiday," said David Wilson, director of metals research at Societe Generale.

China's General Administration of Customs will publish preliminary import data for March on April 11.

Aluminium rose to its highest since September 2008, partly due to strong energy prices, with oil sticking near a 2-1/2 year peak on unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.

Energy accounts for about 40 percent of the cost of producing aluminium.

RBS analyst Nick Moore said investors were scrambling for value: "Aluminium is still some 20 percent below its peak and people are looking at it as a commodity with value."

"Copper is richly priced and so they're rotating into aluminium,"Open interest on aluminium LME contracts are near their highest since the middle of January.

Aluminium was $2,657 per tonne at 1003 GMT, off an intraday high of $2,670, and compared with Tuesday's $2,641 close.

Data on Wednesday showed inventories of the metal in LME warehouses were down 4,175 tonnes at 4,890,00, but remain consistently high and within reach of a record high 4,640,750 tonnes hit in January last year.

Moore said the market had grown comfortable with the high stocks.

Nickel rose to $26,000 per tonne from $25,405 and tin rose to $31,950 from $31,605.

Lead dipped to $2,765 from $2,790 and zinc fell to $2,420 from $2,425.

           

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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