Cotton: from good seed to good production system

For years, the debate on reviving Pakistan’s cotton sector has largely revolved around the availability of better seed. Good seed is certainly essential, but is it the complete explanation for low cotton productivity, and is it the complete solution? This question becomes more important when we look at per-acre yields across different provinces.

According to Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association data for 2025-26, Punjab recorded approximately 2.63 million bales while Sindh recorded around 2.915 million bales. When these figures are considered against the respective cultivated areas, Punjab’s yield comes to approximately 0.84 bale per acre, compared with around 2.10 bales per acre in Sindh.

In other words, per-acre productivity in Sindh was roughly two and a half times higher than in Punjab, even though the difference in their total production was relatively small. This raises a fundamental question. If the primary problem in cotton production is simply the availability of good seed, why is there such a large difference in per-acre performance across different production environments? The answer may require us to look beyond seed.

The current season is sending an important signal:

The cotton crop situation in the current 2026-27 season appears significantly better than in the past few years. In Punjab, the cotton area target was around 3.2 million acres, while actual cultivation took place on approximately 2.6 million acres.

In Sindh, the cultivated area is around 1.35 million acres. Despite the shortfall against the target, the overall condition of the current crop is encouraging. Information from different cotton-growing areas, observations by Agriculture Extension, progressive farmers and reports from other relevant stakeholders indicate better crop condition, healthy fruiting and a good boll-setting situation.

Weather conditions also appear more favourable for cotton than in the past few years, while pest pressure has been relatively lower in several areas.

The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association’s report of August 18, 2026 also points towards this early improvement. By August 15, a total of 1,113,513 bales had arrived at ginning factories across the country, 25.48 percent higher than the 887,401 bales recorded during the same period last year.

Punjab’s arrivals increased by 2.61 percent while combined arrivals from Sindh and Baluchistan soared by 41.80 percent.

The number of operational ginning factories also increased from 244 to 268. These figures do not represent final production. Treating cotton arrivals as final production would be incorrect. However, they do provide an important early signal of crop performance.

7.5 million bales: a field-based estimate:

Based on the current crop condition, field information from different cotton-growing areas and inputs from various relevant sources, my preliminary assessment is that Pakistan’s cotton production could reach around 7.5 million bales in the current season.

Compared with approximately 5.6 million bales last season, this would mean an increase of around 1.9 million bales. This is not an official projection. It is a field-based estimate based on current conditions.

Weather during the coming weeks, boll retention, pest pressure, picking and harvest losses could change this assessment. However, if the current crop condition holds, the possibility of 7.5 million bales cannot be ruled out. This brings us to an important question. If favourable weather, better crop condition and improved crop management can produce a significant difference in output, is it appropriate to view cotton productivity simply as a seed-quality problem?

The bigger question is the production environment:

Good seed provides the genetic potential of a crop. But genetic potential and actual yield achieved in a farmer’s field are not the same thing. Between the two lies the entire production system.

Land preparation, sowing time, plant population, water availability, irrigation timing, nutrition, temperature, pest management, disease management and overall crop husbandry determine how much of a variety’s genetic potential can actually be expressed in the field. This is why the same crop can produce very different results in different regions. The comparison between Sindh and Punjab is important in this context.

In some cotton-growing areas of Sindh, relatively early sowing, a different crop calendar, water availability and specific climatic conditions may contribute to higher yields. In Punjab, the temperature regime, sowing window, water availability and pest pressure, among other factors, can influence crop performance. The extent to which each factor contributes is a separate question. It needs to be quantified through field data. But one point is clear: yield differences cannot be fully explained simply by looking at the name of the variety.

The gap between yield potential and actual yield

In cotton production, we need to distinguish between three concepts.

Yield potential: The maximum yield a variety can produce under ideal conditions.

Attainable yield: The yield that can be achieved under a specific production environment with good management.

Actual farmer yield: The yield ultimately achieved in the farmer’s real field.

Pakistan’s major problem lies in the gap between these three levels. If a variety has high genetic potential but water, nutrition, temperature, plant population or pest management are not properly managed in the field, simply changing the variety will not deliver the desired results. This is why the evaluation of new varieties should not be based solely on maximum yield.

We need to assess how stable their performance is across different cotton-growing environments, how they respond to heat stress, how they perform under water scarcity or excess water and how much their yield changes under different management systems.

The economic importance of the yield gap

This debate should not remain limited to agricultural production. The yield gap is also an economic issue. For example, if the current yield in Punjab rises from approximately 0.84 bale per acre to 1.5 bales across the existing 2.6 million acres, the province could produce around 1.72 million additional bales.

Similarly, if Sindh’s yield increases from approximately 2.10 to 2.5 bales per acre, the province could add around 540,000 bales. These are not merely agricultural figures.

Additional cotton can increase farmers’ incomes, provide more locally produced raw material for the textile industry and reduce pressure on the country’s cotton import bill. This is why limiting cotton revival to the search for new varieties would be too narrow an approach.

From good seed to a good production system

This does not mean that good seed is unimportant. On the contrary, good seed is a fundamental requirement. But a fundamental requirement is not the same as a complete solution.

Pakistan needs to move from Good Seed to a Good Production System. This means looking at seed, soil, water, nutrition, temperature management, pest and disease management, crop calendar, modern crop husbandry, research, extension and markets as interconnected components of a single production system. It is not enough to tell a farmer which seed to buy.

Farmers also need to know when to plant that seed, how many plants to maintain, when to irrigate at critical growth stages, how to manage nutrition and when to intervene in response to pest pressure.

Similarly, research institutions should not limit their role to developing new varieties. They must also demonstrate which production packages deliver more stable and profitable results across different agro-ecological zones.

The real question behind cotton revival

In Pakistan, our discussion often begins with one question: Which seed variety will produce the highest yield? We now need to ask another question with equal seriousness: Which production system can convert the genetic potential of that seed into higher, more stable and more profitable yields in farmers’ fields? In my view, this is where the next phase of Pakistan’s cotton revival strategy should begin.

Good seed is essential, but good seed needs a good production system to translate genetic potential into results. Cotton revival may begin with seed, but achieving higher yields and better farmer incomes requires fixing the entire production system.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026