Australian dollar holds firm as RBA keeps jawboning on hikes

SYDNEY: The Australian dollar held just short of 11-week highs on Tuesday as details from the central bank’s last policy meeting suggested policymakers were closer to raising rates than investors previously thought.

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August board meeting showed “several” members of the nine-person board felt a tightening was needed given upside risks to inflation, but compromised on a steady call pending more data.

The board made a point of noting that by its next meeting on September 28 and 29 it would have figures on jobs, inflation and economic growth, implying it would be live for a hike.

Markets, on the other hand, are pricing just a 14% chance of a quarter-point rise in the 4.35% cash rate, though that shifts to 68% by December.

Central bank officials have repeatedly warned that inflation risks lie to the upside and rates might be lifted again if inflation did not recede as hoped. Three-year bond futures slipped 3 ticks to 95.440, while 10-year yields inched up 2 basis points to 5.011%.

That helped nudge the Aussie up 0.1% to $0.7155, having eased 0.3% overnight and away from a top of $0.7180. Major resistance remains at $0.7200 and $0.7277, with support around $0.7067.

The kiwi dollar stood at $0.5961, after also losing 0.3% overnight.

It faces resistance in the $0.5988/5993 zone, with support at $0.5860.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next week and markets imply a 90% chance it will hike the 2.5% cash rate by a quarter point, and follow up with a move to 3.0% by year end.

“Market pricing for the RBNZ looks fair for a September 2 hike,” said Imre Speizer, an economist at Westpac.

“Market pricing for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting implies only a 45% chance of a hike.”

“We expect further gains for the kiwi during the months ahead as the RBNZ continues hiking, the Fed reluctant to start its own cycle,” he added.

“That suggests a year-end range of $0.5900-$0.6100.”