NEW YORK: Limits gains US natural gas futures rose on Tuesday, rebounding from a more than one-week low hit in the previous session, as oil prices climbed, although gains were capped by record output and forecasts for lower demand than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.1 cents, or 1.2percent, to USD2.72 per million British thermal units. The contract fell to its lowest level since August 7 on Monday.
Brent crude oil rose above USD91 a barrel as prospects receded for a deal to end the Middle East war, with Iran saying it would adopt a more offensive stance and the US ruling out extending a ceasefire deal, heightening worries about prolonged energy supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until the US meets the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June, the top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media on Tuesday.
“The lack of supply out of the Middle East has helped the LNG export market… natgas prices are kind of bouncing around this sub USD3 area with ample supply, even with the hot weather,” said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states was up to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in July.
Record output and mild spring weather this year have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory higher than the five-year (2021-2025) average since March.
Gas inventories have remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures this summer.
“With the short-term temperature views now favouring some comparatively cool patterns across most of the heavily populated northeast quadrant of the US, the process of reducing significant (supply) surplus will be further challenged going forward ahead of the low demand shoulder period when it becomes increasingly difficult to shift a supply surplus significantly in either direction,” consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
Meteorologists forecast milder weather than previously expected nationwide in the coming weeks, as Cooling Degree Days fell to 212 on Tuesday from 216 on Monday. CDDs measure energy demand to cool buildings.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slip from 114.4 bcfd this week to 112.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants stand at 17.2 bcfd so far in August, unchanged from July and slightly lower than a monthly record high of 17.4 bcfd in June.
Elsewhere, benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices firmed after the official lapse of June’s ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, with both sides stepping up combative rhetoric, undermining hopes energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would resume.
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