LONDON: Cocoa prices are expected to extend their recent gains by year-end, with production in West Africa set to fall as a super El Nino weather pattern looms, a Reuters poll of 11 traders and analysts showed on Monday.
London cocoa futures on ICE were seen ending 2026 at £4,450 a metric ton, up 7.2percent from Friday’s close and 1.8percent higher than levels seen at the end of 2025, according to the median forecast of poll participants. New York cocoa was seen ending the year at USD6,000 per ton, up 5.7percent from Friday’s close but 1.7percent lower than end-2025 levels.
London and New York cocoa prices fell sharply in the first quarter of this year as weak global demand led to a build-up in stocks in West Africa. Both markets, however, gained some 50percent in the second quarter and have proceeded higher so far this month. “Not only are crops poorer already but a Super El Nino will also likely have a negative impact on production,” a veteran industry analyst said.
The US Climate Prediction Center has forecast an 81percent chance of a very strong El Nino during October-December that would rank among the largest on record.
El Nino is worrisome for the chocolate ingredient as it disrupts weather patterns in top grower West Africa, where 70percent of the world’s beans are grown.
Cocoa futures nearly tripled in 2024 after the West African harvest failed amid an El Nino weather pattern that was considered a moderate-to-strong occurrence. This time, the weather pattern is expected to wipe out the current surplus.
The median forecast of poll participants was for a balanced market in the 2026/2027 season, which runs from October to September, compared with a surplus of 400,000 tons for the current 2025/2026 season. Cocoa output in top producer Ivory Coast was expected to fall to 1.8 million tons in 2026/2027 from 1.98 million in the current season. Ghana, the current number two producer, is seen losing that position to Ecuador with output forecast to fall to 580,000 tons from 675,000 while the South American country’s output is seen steady at 600,000 tons.
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