Population ‘bomb’

EDITORIAL: Pakistan’s annual population growth rate is estimated at 2.55 percent which implies the addition of nearly 7 million each year – an expansion that exacerbates the pressure on existing woefully poor infrastructure – social and physical.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has described this growth rate as an “alarming trend” which cancels out the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and strains natural resources; and has repeatedly emphasized the need for population control as well as the need to transform the country’s youth into productive economic assets. However, while Sharif has established numerous programmes that facilitate investments (including youth business loans allocated 100 million rupees in the budget 2026-27 against 400 million rupees budgeted last year) yet there has been a dearth of population planning allocation in this country’s budgets since he was elected Prime Minister in April 2022.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has gone one step further and referred to population growth as an “existential threat” to Pakistan and echoed the Prime Minister’s legitimate concern that it is cancelling out growth as well as fuelling widespread stunting and depriving millions of basic education; and yet a close look at the budget documents for 2026-27 reveals that the relevant National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination Division has not specified any amount allocated for population control. While Health was devolved to the provinces, which may be a reason, why the Centre no longer deems it appropriate to allocate funds for population growth that, as per the Finance Minister, presents an existential threat to this country, given that the provinces are clearly not giving any attention to this.

And the reason could well be the fact that the National Finance Commission award gives 82 percent weight to population or, in other words, the higher the population the more a province’s share would be from the divisible pool and which, in turn, will also determine how many of the federal jobs are to go to a particular province. It is imperative that the federal and provincial governments revisit the award that has been carried forward since 2010 and reach a consensus that would slash the weight given to population by at least another 15 percent.

In marked contrast, however, India has controlled its fertility rate which has dropped to 1.9 percent falling below the 2.1 percent that is required for replacement to stabilise the population. However, one would not be remiss in assuming that, unlike in European countries where population growth of below replacement levels is creating concerns leading to extension of child support by the state, India has yet to reach that level of concern. Interestingly, India’s population policy focuses on voluntary family planning and healthcare and perhaps Pakistan can learn some valuable lessons, given our narrow fiscal space.

Bangladesh too has witnessed a fall in the fertility rate to slightly below or equivalent to replacement levels, 2.1 percent, and like in India, this too was achieved through voluntary family planning and women’s empowerment.

The key difference between Pakistan and the other two South Asian countries is in the literacy rate estimated at 63 percent in this country while it is estimated at 77 percent in India and 79 percent in Bangladesh.

Education was also devolved to the provinces in 2010 through the eighteenth constitutional amendment; however, none of the provinces has either the capacity or the inclination to give this sector the financial allocation that it requires.

To conclude, there is an urgent need for the government to commence discussions on the NFC award to revise the overwhelming weight to population for distribution of provincial shares and for the provinces to revise their education budgets upward as well as encourage voluntary family planning projects.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026