KARACHI: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), in its January–February–March (JFM) 2026 outlook, has forecast a mixed rainfall pattern across the country along with above-normal temperatures nationwide, based on a Multi-Model Ensemble of eight global prediction systems.
The seasonal rainfall forecast indicates a clear north–south contrast. Above-normal rainfall is expected over northwestern parts of the country, particularly upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northwestern Punjab, and Gilgit-Baltistan, pointing to enhanced winter precipitation in these regions.
In contrast, below-normal rainfall is likely over northeastern areas, including Punjab and adjoining Kashmir, as well as southern and southwestern regions such as Balochistan.
Central Pakistan is projected to experience largely near-normal rainfall conditions. The probabilistic outlook shows broad agreement for near-normal rainfall over most areas, though central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may receive above-normal rainfall, while eastern Gilgit-Baltistan may see below-normal rainfall.
The outlook takes into account large-scale climate drivers, with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to remain neutral and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transitioning from a marginally negative phase to neutral during the season.
On the temperature side, mean temperatures during JFM 2026 are forecast to remain above normal across Pakistan. The highest positive temperature anomalies are expected in northern regions, particularly Gilgit-Baltistan.
Probabilistic temperature forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures nationwide, with the greatest probability over Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and the southern coastal belts of Sindh and Balochistan.
From a water resources perspective, near-to above-normal rainfall over upper catchments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan is likely to support river inflows and reservoir replenishment.
Although slightly below-normal rainfall in parts of Punjab and southwestern Balochistan may temporarily constrain local water availability, rainfall expected during late January and February 2026 should help stabilize water resources and ease pressure on the agriculture and power sectors.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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