Thai November export growth misses forecast, but US exports surge

BANGKOK: Thailand’s exports rose less than expected in November despite strong shipments to the United States, but could slow further next year with a strong baht hurting shipments, the Thai commerce ministry said on Thursday.

Exports rose 7.1% in November from a year earlier, below a forecast 8.25% year-on-year increase in a Reuters poll and following a 5.7% rise in the previous month.

Exports were driven by the upcycle in the computer industry and rapid growth of advanced technologies, but some key markets were slowing, the ministry said in a statement.

While exports are expected to post solid growth this year due to earlier front-loading, they would slow in 2026, hurt by U.S. tariffs and the strengthening of the baht, the ministry said.

The baht has gained 10.4% against the dollar so far this year to become Asia’s second-best performing currency.

Thailand’s car production rises 11% on year in November

“The strong baht is hurting exports of food and agricultural products,” Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a press conference.

Over the January-November period, exports rose 12.6% from a year earlier. The commerce ministry forecast export growth of 11.6% to 12.1% for the whole of 2025.

For 2026, exports might rise by 1.1% or fall up to 3.1%, Nantapong said, adding the export cycle of electronics goods should continue to lend support.

“The private sector expects electronics to grow as much as 20% next year,” he said.

The United States has imposed a 19% tariff on imported goods from Thailand, in line with other countries in the region.

Nantapong said trade negotiations with the U.S were likely to be completed next year.

In November, exports to the United States, Thailand’s largest market, grew 37.9% year-on-year, while shipments to China declined 7.8%.

Thai rice export volumes rose 7.5% year-on-year in November, but dropped 21% in the first 11 months of the year, to about 7.3 million metric tons.

In November, China agreed to buy 500,000 tonnes of Thai rice.

Imports in November rose 17.6% from a year earlier, versus a forecast rise of 14%, leading to a trade deficit of $2.73 billion in the month, wider than the forecast deficit of $1.12 billion.