Indian rupee may open at fresh record low, with risk-off tone compounding flow mismatch

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to open at a fresh lifetime low on Tuesday, as a deteriorating risk backdrop amplifies pressure from persistently lopsided flows that have remained a drag on the currency.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 90.80-90.85 range against the US dollar, after settling at 90.73 on Monday.

The currency slipped to a fresh all-time low of 90.7875 on Monday, extending its run of record lows to a third straight session.

Over the past sessions, bankers have pointed out the rupee was being weighed down by a persistent mismatch in dollar demand and supply.

Fixing-related dollar buying, possibly tied to NDF maturities and portfolio outflows, has been a recurring feature, while dollar purchases by state-owned enterprises added to the strain, they say.

Bankers added that importer hedging demand has consistently outstripped exporter selling in recent sessions, driven by a weak rupee outlook and limited willingness among exporters to hedge.

“The current phase of rupee weakness appears more flow-led than panic-driven,” India Forex and Asset Management said.

“Capital outflows are outweighing India’s structural strengths in the near term. Until there is a clear reversal in portfolio flows or a positive catalyst on the trade front, rupee is likely to remain under pressure.”