Oil flat in choppy trade as investors weigh Russia sanctions, glut forecasts

HOUSTON: Oil prices were flat on Tuesday in a choppy session as traders weighed the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows against an expected supply surplus next year.

Brent crude was down 9 cents, or 0.14%, at $64.11 a barrel at 11:27 a.m. EDT (1628 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $59.97. Both benchmarks were trading about 1% lower earlier in the session.

“We are in a tight trading range right now, the market is on hold until we get some inventory numbers,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

Investors await U.S. oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute, due at around 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury said sanctions imposed in October on Rosneft and Lukoil are already squeezing Russia’s oil revenue and are expected to curb its export volumes over time.

“Traders weighed the impact of a growing global surplus against U.S. sanctions that are disrupting Russian crude flows,” said MUFG analyst Soojin Kim.

A senior White House official said that U.S. President Donald Trump was willing to sign Russian sanctions legislation as long as he retains final authority over its implementation.

Trump said on Sunday that Republicans were drafting a bill to impose sanctions on any country doing business with Russia, adding that Iran could also be included.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed oil loadings on Sunday after a two-day suspension triggered by a Ukrainian missile and drone attack, according to two industry sources and data compiled by LSEG.

Exports from Novorossiysk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, together representing about 2.2 million barrels per day, or roughly 2% of global supply, were halted on Friday, pushing crude prices up more than 2% that day.

Oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, citing a supply wave that keeps the market in surplus. However, it noted that Brent could rise above $70 a barrel in 2026/2027 if Russian output falls more sharply.