Australia, NZ dollars slip after bumper week, US jobs data in focus

SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped on Monday after a bumper week when the US government reopened from a record long shutdown, while traders are waiting for a US jobs report that could make or break the case for a US rate cut next month.

The Aussie eased 0.2% to $0.6527, having finished last week 0.6% higher when at one point it climbed as high as $0.6580. Resistance is around $0.6617, while support is firm at $0.6440.

The kiwi dollar also fell 0.2% against the greenback to $0.5671, after rising 0.9% last week - a bounce off a seven-month trough of $0.5606.

It has clawed back some recent losses against the Aussie, rebounding from a 12-year low to manage a 0.3% rise last week.

With the US government shutdown ended, investors are bracing for a barrage of data releases that are set to give clues on the health of the world’s largest economy.

September’s nonfarm payrolls report is due on Thursday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday will release the minutes of its November policy meeting where it held interest rates steady at 3.6%.

There has been a growing debate about whether current monetary policy is restrictive.

Also in focus is Australia’s quarterly wages data due on Wednesday.

Analysts are tipping for a 0.8% gain, which would leave the annual pace steady at 3.8%.

That is likely to support the view that the labour market is still on the tight side after a solid jobs report just last week.

“AUD/USD can lift this week because of a weaker USD and solid Australian economic data,” said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Wage growth for Q3 2025 risks beating expectations… A significant beat could remove the remaining pricing for an interest rate cut by the RBA and push up AUD/USD above 0.66 for the first time this month.”

Swaps imply just a 40% probability that the RBA could cut rates again in May next year, after a slew of data surprised on the upside, reinforcing the view that the easing cycle might already be over.

Across the Tasman sea, data showed on Monday that food prices in New Zealand fell in October, paving the way for a quarter-point cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later this month. Home prices rose 0.7% in October from a month earlier, in a sign that the slump in the property market may have stabilised.

Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, said she expected the RBNZ to deliver one final cut on November 26.

“We don’t expect the RBNZ to cut further next year (barring a global shock) but it would be politic to leave the door open to that possibility in order to head off a potential U-turn in monetary conditions over the summer.”