HOUSTON: Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Monday after China’s latest stimulus plan disappointed investors seeking demand growth in the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, while supply looked set to rise in 2025.
Brent crude futures were down $1.99, or 2.69%, at $71.88 a barrel by 11:26 a.m. CST (1726 GMT) while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $68.27 a barrel, down $2.11, or 3%.
Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday.
Donald Trump’s US election victory may continue to be affecting the market, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for the Price Futures Group.
“The election with Trump’s promise to “drill baby, drill” has taken away some incentive to go long,” Flynn said.
The US dollar index, a measure of its value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, slightly overshot the highs seen right after the Nov. 5 US presidential election, with markets still waiting for clarity about future US policy.
A stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the US currency, such as oil, more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on prices.
In China, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened, data showed on Saturday, even as Beijing doubled down on stimulus to support the sputtering economy.
“Chinese inflation figures were again weak, with the market fearing deflation, particularly as the yearly change in the producer price index fell further into negative territory ... Chinese economic momentum remains negative,” said Achilleas Georgolopoulos, a market analyst at brokerage XM.
Bank of America Securities said in a note on Monday that non-OPEC crude supply was expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026.
“Meaningful non-OPEC growth next year and an unconvincing Chinese stimulus package likely mean inventories will swell even without OPEC+ increases,” Bank of America noted. “So, the group faces a difficult challenge, which likely requires continued resolve and possibly additional curtailments if balances deteriorate further.” Bank of America added that supply disruptions may offer opportunities for OPEC+, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are called, to expand supply.
In late September, OPEC+ said it would boost supply in December by 180,000 bpd, but earlier this month an agreement was reached among the member and allied countries to postpone the supply expansion until January.
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