MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to open weaker on Thursday, after a measure of how the US labour market was faring spurred expectations that the Federal Reserve would deliver a smaller interest rate hike next month, boosting the US dollar.
The conflict in the Middle East and the potential impact it could have on oil prices is further expected to weigh on the Indian currency.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 83.92-83.94 to the US dollar, compared with 83.82 on Tuesday. Indian financial markets were shut on Wednesday for a public holiday.
The rupee is not too far away from an all-time low of 83.9850 hit a month ago.
The rupee is “now back towards the higher side of the current range, tracking the changing Fed rate cut odds”, said Srinivas Puni, managing directors at QuantArt Market Solutions.
Unless Friday’s US jobs data comes in much higher than expected, the 84-84.10 zone will likely remain the peak for USD/INR, he said.
Indian rupee to ignore dovish Fed minutes; bias on downside
The dollar index was up for a fourth straight session and at a three-week high on mounting expectations that the Fed at its November meeting will cut rates by 25 basis points, a step down from the 50 bps it opted for last month.
The dollar was helped by data on Wednesday that showed US private payrolls increased more than expected last month, spurring expectations for a robust reading on the monthly non-farm payrolls figures due on Friday.
The data supported Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks that the US central bank is in no hurry to cut rates.
Futures are now pricing in just a 1-in-3 likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut next month, down from nearly 60% a week before. Meanwhile, oil prices ticked higher on Thursday amid worries over the widening Middle East conflict.
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