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Pakistan

Pakistan’s headline inflation clocks in at 11.1% in July 2024, lowest since November 2021

  • Reading lower than official expectations that put figure in range of 12-13%
Published August 1, 2024

Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 11.1% on a year-on-year basis in July 2024, lower than the reading in June 2024 when it stood at 12.6%.

This is the lowest CPI figure since November 2021 when it stood at 11.5%, shows data available with the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

On a month-on-month basis , CPI inflation increased 2.1% in July 2024 as compared to rise of 0.5% last month.

The reading is also lower than official expectations. The finance ministry had stated that it expects inflation in July to range between 12% and 13% in the monthly economic outlook released on Tuesday.

The inflation figure comes after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut the key policy rate by 100 basis points, taking it to 19.5%, arguing that there are “risks to the inflation outlook from fiscal slippages and ad-hoc decisions related to energy price adjustments”.

However, the reading was slightly higher when compared with projections made by a number of brokerage houses.

Foundation Securities expected CPI to clock in “at 10.5% YoY in July”.

“Inflation is projected to decline significantly in FY25 amid cooling food and core inflation. (1) Lagged impact of monetary tightening of past 2 years, (2) favorable base effect, (3) improved domestic crop outlook, (4) anticipated favorable global and domestic conditions, and (5) steady exchange rate are expected to contribute in achieving price stability,” it had said.

JS Global, another brokerage house, also projected inflation rate to clock in at 10.5% in July.

“With July 2024 CPI now further expected to cool down to 10.5%, despite a MoM uptick of 1.6%, Pakistan’s real interest rate (RIR) remains at sky-high levels, further expanding to 10 percentage points,” said JS Global in a report.

However, analysts also believe that a high-base effect coupled with the latest decrease in petroleum prices would help cool off inflation that hit a record high of 38% in May 2023.

Urban, rural inflation

The PBS said CPI inflation urban clocked in at 13.2% on year-on-year basis in July 2024, as compared to an increase of 14.9% in the previous month and 26.3% in July 2023.

On month-on-month basis, it increased to 2.0% in July 2024 as compared to an increase of 0.6% in the previous month and an increase of 3.6% in July 2023.

CPI inflation rural increased to 8.1% on year-on-year basis in July 2024 as compared to an increase of 9.3% in the previous month and 31.3% in July 2023.

On month-on-month basis, it increased to 2.2% in July 2024 as compared to an increase of 0.3% in the previous month and an increase of 3.3% in July 2023.

Comments

200 characters
Kashif Aug 01, 2024 03:12pm
Which products and services are considered for this CPI rate determination. Major factors that contributes CPI % as follow; Transportation Education food and beverages Medical care Housing Clothing
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Arif Aug 01, 2024 03:25pm
Fake , like everything else.
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Rizwan Aug 01, 2024 03:39pm
This is just number game and make everyone fool. We have been witnessing increasing in inflation since last two years and there is no respite to that.
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Rizwan Aug 01, 2024 03:39pm
This is just number game and make everyone fool. We have been witnessing increasing in inflation since last two years and there is no respite to that.
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Anjum Gulzar Aug 01, 2024 03:47pm
I don't know from where they collect data it's 25% increase in inflation
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Iftikhar Aug 01, 2024 04:01pm
In your dreams & on papers only. Go to the market and you'll see the real inflation. STOP SPREADING FAKE NEWS
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Nooruddin Sadruddin Aug 01, 2024 04:25pm
In schools we studied that there is a negative correlation between inflation and purchasing power. As inflation goes down, the purchasing power goes up. But in Pakistan the situation is reversed.
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Az_Iz Aug 01, 2024 04:49pm
Prices will still go up, but at a much slower rate, compared to last year.
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mustafa Aug 01, 2024 05:39pm
yes. indicators are positive ... uneducated will comment without reading anything ...
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Areeb Aug 01, 2024 06:56pm
It's all about number game
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SAd Aug 01, 2024 07:00pm
Hardwork and tough decisions stabilizing the economy
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Nauman Ayub Aug 01, 2024 09:22pm
Wrong analysis. Inflation is around 25 %.
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Zulqarnain Alam Aug 02, 2024 01:35am
In April 2022, petrol price was 150 per litre and inflation was 13%, today it cost 270 and inflation is 11%, Only brainless can believe this.
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Adeel Aug 02, 2024 06:03am
Fake and planted news from controlled Pakistani media..... Sab commodities ky rates increasing and so called journalist can't see .
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Aam Aadmi Aug 02, 2024 06:53am
Yet another pack of lies. These are the figures compiled by clerks rather Naib Qasids of babus sitting in their air-conditioned rooms. As an ordinary consumer, I strongly contest this analysis.
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Abdul Aug 03, 2024 01:49am
Fake numbers as usual
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