England COVID reproduction rate steady at 0.8 to 1

LONDON: The estimated COVID-19 reproduction number in England could be as high as 1, official figures showed on Friday, although the pandemic is still thought to be shrinking.

This week, strict lockdown restrictions in England began to be eased for the first time since the start of the year as the number of deaths, hospitalisations and cases has steadily fallen.

The Department of Health said scientists could not agree to a nationwide figure for the reproduction "R" number or daily growth estimate in COVID-19 cases, but the estimated figures for England remained unchanged.

In England, the R number was estimated between 0.8 to 1.0, meaning that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 others, a figure unchanged from last week. A figure above 1 suggests the disease is growing.

The figures showed the daily growth rate of infections in England was between -4% to 0%, meaning the number of new infections was shrinking by between 0% and 4% each day, also the same rate as recorded the previous week.

Health chiefs had cautioned progress in limiting infection would slow after millions of children returned to school at the start of March, although the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday an estimated 1 in 370 people in England had COVID-19 last week, the lowest share since mid-September and compared with 1 in 340 in the previous week.

The R number has been used a guide to the state of the pandemic but the health ministry said the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) had not agreed figures for the whole of the United Kingdom this week.

"Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK-level estimates are less meaningful than previously and may not accurately reflect the current picture of the epidemic," the ministry said.