Strategie Grains lifts 2020/21 EU wheat exports, cuts maize crop

PARIS: Strategie Grains has raised its outlook for soft wheat exports from the European Union and Britain, the consultancy said on Thursday, citing better competitiveness on world markets after a rise in Black Sea wheat prices.

In a monthly report, it forecast 2020/2121 exports outside the EU and Britain at 25.0 million tonnes, up from 23.0 million seen in September.

"European prices increased less sharply than Black Sea prices, and thus potential export demand for the EU origins has picked up since last month," the analyst said.

Global wheat prices have rocketed in the past month, with Euronext milling wheat futures gaining 9% on mounting worries over adverse crop weather in major exporting countries.

The rise was particularly steep in Russia, where farmers refrained from selling on dry weather concerns despite strong demand.

Strategie Grains also reduced its forecast for the EU's ongoing maize harvest following a hot, dry summer in some major growing areas.

The French firm now expects EU and British grain maize production at 62.7 million tonnes, down from 64.9 million last month, and now 4.7 million tonnes below its August estimate.

This month's reduction is mainly due to a 1.5 million tonnes cut in its estimate for the Romanian maize crop and 200,000 tonnes for France.

For soft wheat, it increased its estimate for EU and British output this year to 129.5 million tonnes from 129.3 million last month.

Meanwhile, the barley harvest was estimated 800,000 tonnes lower than last month at 63.8 million tonnes, mainly due to a cut in French yields.