UK GAS-Prices rise on reduced Norway flows and cooler weather

• Lower gas imports from Norway and expected colder weather were behind the rise in British gas prices.
• Prices rose despite the gas system being slightly oversupplied.

LONDON: British wholesale gas prices rose on Tuesday morning as a sharp decline in flows from Norway and forecasts for lower temperatures offset the effect of strong wind power generation.

Day-ahead gas rose by 1.1 pence to 27.1 pence/therm by 0727 GMT.

Within-day gas was up 0.75 pence at 26 p/therm.

Lower gas imports from Norway and expected colder weather were behind the rise in British gas prices, a gas trader said.

Norwegian gas flows fell to 26 million cubic metres (mcm) per day on Tuesday from 43 mcm the previous day, with flows through the Langeled pipeline dropping to 8 mcm/day from 25 mcm/day.

Average daily temperatures are forecast at 12.3 degrees Celsius on Tuesday and expected to fall to 10.8C on Wednesday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Prices rose despite the gas system being slightly oversupplied.

Demand was forecast at 176.2 mcm and supply at 179 mcm, National Grid data showed.

Electricity output from wind power turbines was forecast at maximum capacity, reducing gas demand by a third day on day. High wind power supply typically reduces gas-for-power demand.

Wind power generation is expected at very high levels, reaching 12.2 gigawatts (GW) on Tuesday, meeting its total metered capacity, according to Elexon data. It is also forecast at 12.2 GW on Wednesday.

One liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo arrived in Britain on Tuesday, with six more vessels expected by the end of October.

The November gas contract was up by 0.45 pence at 41.50 p/therm.

Day-ahead gas at the Dutch TTF hub rose by 0.45 euros to 10.70 euros per megawatt hour (MWh)

The Dutch month-ahead gas contract, a benchmark for LNG prices as well as European gas, was down by 0.03 euros at 15.52 euros/MWh.

The benchmark Dec-19 EU carbon contract rose by 0.04 euros to 23.45 euros a tonne.