SINGAPORE: CBOT December wheat may break a support at $4.93-3/4 per bushel and fall more to $4.90-1/4, as suggested by its wave pattern and a projection analysis.
The support is provided by the 76.4 percent retracement on the uptrend from $4.85-1/2 to $5.20-3/4. The uptrend had been developing within a rising wedge, which was proved to be a bearish continuation pattern, following a break below its lower trendline.
The pattern suggests that the current fall could be resuming the downtrend that temporarily ended at the Oct. 25 low of $4.85-1/2.
The deep fall on Monday indicates wheat may revisit the low at $4.85-1/2. A more realistic target will be $4.90-1/4. Resistance is at $4.98-3/4, a break above which may lead to a gain to $5.03.
Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
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