Wheat falls back after surge, markets await USDA forecast

HAMBURG: Chicago wheat fell on Tuesday on selling pressure after Monday's sharp rise, while soybeans firmed as the market awaited new crop estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Chicago Board of Trade December wheat was down 0.7 percent at $5.24-1/2 a bushel at 1025 GMT. Wheat had risen over 3 percent on Monday on concern about tightening world supplies.

November soybeans rose 0.2 percent to $8.47-1/4 a bushel. December corn was unchanged at $3.67-1/4 a bushel.

"Wheat is falling on some profit taking after strong rises on Monday, soybeans and corn are seeing positioning ahead of the USDA world supply and demand report on Wednesday," said Matt Ammermann, commodity risk manager with INTL FCStone.

"I do not read any new factors in today's fall in wheat. The main wheat market focus remains on whether Russia will impose some form of export restrictions after its poor harvest this summer."

"After the bad harvests in the Black Sea, EU and Australia the question is still about when world export demand will be transferred to the United States. The market is still waiting for signs of larger U.S. wheat exports."

Russia's deputy prime minister said the country's 2018/19 grain crop would allow exports of 30 million tonnes, a figure traders have cited as a potential ceiling after which export curbs could be imposed.

Australia lowered its wheat forecast by nearly 13 percent after a drought.

Germany's Commerzbank highlighted the reduced wheat crop forecasts in Australia, Russia, the EU and dryness in Argentina in a note.

"There are thus numerous reasons for a much higher price level than in previous years," Commerzbank said of wheat.

The USDA report on Wednesday will update official U.S. corn and soybean harvest forecasts. Trade expectations are for the USDA to forecast record high U.S. soybean yields. Estimates of U.S. corn yields could be cut slightly from the last report in August but would still be at high levels.

"For soybeans, unless the USDA surprises with its estimates on Wednesday, it looks like the U.S. is set for a very large crop," Ammermann said. "But the market seems to have accepted that a bumper U.S. soybean harvest is on the way and is moving beyond this."

"Corn is drifting ahead of the USDA's forecast of U.S. corn crop yields. In world export markets, U.S. corn remains competitive against other corn origins and also compared to other feed grains."