Marex sees 5.0mn bag coffee surplus in 2018/19

LONDON: Marex Spectron has forecast a global coffee surplus of 5.0 million 60-kg bags in 2018/19 driven by rising production in Brazil.

The broker said in a report it estimated there would be a global deficit of 3.3 million bags in 2017/18.

Brazil crop in 2018/19 seen at 61.0 million bags, up from 50.0 million in 2017/18.

"This year there is a greater degree of consensus on the arabica regions (of Brazil) than usual. Rains arrived late for the flowering but not too late," the broker said.

Arabica coffee seen in surplus but outlook for robusta less clear.

"Global weather will need to be perfect and crops at trend or above to avoid robusta again being in deficit in 2018/19," the report said.