Aluminium falls on higher Chinese exports and hopes for Middle East de-escalation

LONDON: Aluminium prices fell on Tuesday to their lowest in more than two weeks as rising exports from top producer China and hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East eased supply concerns, offsetting support from tight inventories.

Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.1% at $3,031.50 a metric ton by 0950 GMT after touching $3,014, its lowest level since October 23.

China’s customs data showed that the country’s exports of aluminium and aluminium products rose 18% to 5.9 million tons in the first 10 months of 2026.

Aluminium prices have declined 20% since reaching a four-year high in June as supply restarts in the Middle East, disrupted by the Iran war, have progressed faster than expected, while new production capacity is expected to come online in Indonesia.

Copper rebounds on firmer risk sentiment and tight supply in China

US President Donald Trump said on Monday he would hold off on new military strikes against Iran for the time being after appeals from countries in the region.

“As more metal returns to the market from the Middle East and new Indonesian projects ramp up, global supply growth should outpace demand, flipping the market into surplus in 2027,” analysts at ANZ said.

This should limit aluminium price gains next year, although lingering supply risks in the Middle East are likely to keep prices volatile and above $3,000 through early 2027, they added.

Providing some support to aluminium are relatively low global inventories, said Rupankar RM, head of market research at AL Circle.

Available aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses stood at 207,525 tons, their lowest level since March 2025. The inventories are dominated by Russian-made metal, which many Western traders avoid.

Tight availability for immediate supply is visible in the premium of the LME cash aluminium contract over the three-month benchmark, which was last at $96 a ton, its widest since June.

Among LME metals, copper fell 0.1% to $13,876 a ton, zinc rose 0.1% to $3,733.50, lead was steady at $1,884.50, tin lost 0.6% to $45,960 and nickel dropped 0.7% to $16,100.